There were a lot fewer people working in truck transportation in 2025 than initially reported.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly employment report that is released in February is the first to incorporate the annual revision the agency implements as it gathers more data on employment, a process that goes on long past the agency’s monthly reports.
The annual revision is more sweeping than the monthly short-term revisions that can adjust prior reporting for two months. So, for example, the report that comes out in early September will have first-time data for August, as well as potentially adjusted July and June numbers. After that report, June can’t be revised again until the annual revision; July can only be revised one more time a month later before the annual revision.
There are numerous ways to measure the latest report that is the first to incorporate the annual revision. But they all point to the same conclusion: the BLS monthly estimate for truck transportation jobs in 2025 had been running high. The annual revision cut it down to size.
Difference in estimates widened throughout the year
Comparing the latest report for 2025 to the full 2025 report reported in early January, the gap between what was initially reported and was then revised grew as the year went on.
For example, truck transportation jobs in January 2025 after its “final” short-term revision stood at 1,532,000 jobs. The annual revision puts it at 1,493,100 jobs, a difference of 26,000 jobs.
By the end of the year, the annual revision puts December at 1,466,900 truck transportation jobs, 46,400 less than what had been reported just a month ago for December.
David Spencer, the director of business intelligence at Arrive Logistics, told FreightWaves in an email that the size of the revisions could have been expected given market conditions.
“At first glance, it is difficult to see these revisions without associating them with the market volatility observed since the end of November,” he said. “Depending on the index, linehaul costs per mile have increased by roughly 25%, or about $0.40 per mile, over that same period. If these revisions are accurate, such a large and sudden drop in employment would strongly support the level of volatility seen over the past two months.”
What is more striking is just how many truck transportation jobs have been lost in recent years, well beyond the comparison of 2025 to 2024.
The revision is not just for the prior year; it makes changes going further back, though numbers for 2022 or 2023 don’t change that much. The latest report said the peak number of truck transportation jobs was in January 2023, at 1,587,800.
The revised number for December 2025 is 1,466,900 jobs. In January 2026, that was down to 1,462,600 jobs, a drop of 4,300 in one month, a large figure.
What that means is the difference between the January 2023 peak and the number for last month saw a decline of 125,200 jobs.
Aaron Terrazas, an independent economist, noted the overall gain of 130,000 jobs was better than expected. But it was concentrated in two familiar areas.
“Health care has been a perennial driver of job growth through booms and busts, and construction jobs appear to be driven by work on industrial facilities — most likely data center demand,” he said in an email to FreightWaves. “That is a narrow and fragile base supporting the headline jobs stats.”
Warehouse employment higher than estimated
Meanwhile, data in the BLS report showed the opposite trend for warehouse employment: it was higher in 2025 than first estimated.
For example, warehouse employment for December 2025 was initially reported as 1,791,500 workers. The revised estimate released Wednesday is 1,833,100 jobs, a difference of 41,600 workers.
However, the trend did show a decline in warehouse employment over the course of the year. Peak employment in that category last year was in February at 1,883,400 jobs. The end of year figure was more than 50,000 jobs less than that.
The latest revision from earlier years puts peak employment in warehouse employment at 1,939,300 jobs in March 2022.
The preliminary estimate released in September is for the full Transportation and Warehouse sector. Truck transportation, warehouses, rail and other activities are subsets of that number but estimates for those sectors are not provided.
The report estimated that jobs in the Transportation and Warehouse sector would rise by 6,600 jobs. But the number released Wednesday is that between December 2024 and 2025, the total fell by 104,000 jobs.
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