The trucking industry finds itself mired in one of the most protracted freight recessions on record, a predicament exacerbated by a flood of capacity that has outstripped demand. This surplus stems from an industry with negligible barriers to entry, where supply can readily overshoot, challenging the American Trucking Associations’ (ATA) persistent claim of a perpetual driver shortage. That narrative, however, merits scrutiny—not least because it may serve interests beyond those of the industry it purports to represent.
The ATA’s assertion of a driver shortage sends a misleading signal. It lures vulnerable workers and aspiring entrepreneurs into a market already saturated, with banks naively extending credit on the premise of guaranteed demand and pricing power—hallmarks of a classic shortage that, in trucking, are conspicuously absent. Seasoned operators know this well: neither element holds sway in today’s environment.
Halting the influx of new drivers, rather than fueling it through congressional programs and CDL mills, could stem the capacity glut. Yet the ATA persists, a stance that appears at odds with its members’ welfare.
Indeed, the ATA testified before the Senate Commerce Committee this week, urging lawmakers to lower the interstate driving age from 21 to 18. Such a move would further open the taps on new entrants, potentially swelling capacity even as the industry buckles under the weight of excess capacity.
Lowering the truck driver age to 18 would risk unleashing a torrent of new participants into an already oversupplied market, exacerbating the glut rather than alleviating it. Safety advocates warn of heightened accident rates among younger drivers, who are statistically more prone to distractions and crashes due to inexperience.
Economically, this influx could depress freight rates further, prolonging the recession for carriers already operating on razor-thin margins and making a bad situation worse. Active trucks have surged from 1.5 million in January 2017 to 2.1 million today, a 40% increase, largely driven by a steady stream of new drivers.
The ATA may thus reflect organizational incentives rather than its members’ needs. A trade association whose dues scale with the size of the market favor unchecked growth over its constituents’ profitability. Prioritizing policies that address oversupply, rather than encouraging more capacity through new entrants, could curb the excess and offer a path out of the current crisis. Until then, the ATA’s stance risks perpetuating a crisis it claims to address.
