E-commerce to drive air cargo industry expansion through 2043

MIAMI BEACH, Fla. – Express shipments will account for a quarter of all air cargo business by 2043 as e-commerce sales growth outpaces general cargo by a wide margin, contributing to a two-thirds increase in the global freighter fleet to meet shipping demand, according to Boeing’s latest outlook.

Interest in factory-built cargo jets and passenger-to-freighter conversions is also rising, despite the broad availability of international widebody passenger flights with copious shipment space, because dedicated freighters give businesses greater flexibility and schedule reliability, the aerospace manufacturer said in its World Air Cargo Forecast last month. 

Global economic growth, supply chain diversification to countries besides China and the relentless appetite for e-commerce will push airfreight shipping volumes to grow at an annual rate of 4%, with air traffic to double in 20 years, according to Boeing’s analysis. The industry has grown at an average of 2.6% per year over the past two decades.

The transport of business-to-consumer online purchases, which has accelerated since mid-2023 as Chinese marketplaces ramp up direct-to-consumer fulfillment, is a game changer for the air cargo industry. Global e-commerce sales have doubled over the past five years to more than $6 trillion and continue to grow about 9% annually, with the fastest growth in the emerging markets of South Asia and Southeast Asia, according to eMarketer. And they will be the dominant driver of air cargo growth during the next two decades. Boeing said express carriers, which offer the speed e-commerce shippers require, will see volumes grow 5.8% per year compared to 3.6% for general cargo – a 33% difference. General cargo is typically defined as larger, bulky shipments that are booked by 3PLs.

With a greater role in e-commerce distribution, express carriers are expected to handle 25% of air cargo volume in 20 years, up from an 18% market share today, according to Boeing’s forecast.