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Trucking rates continue to slide amid weak demand, expanded capacity

Data on producer prices shows that wholesale inflation pressure rose mildly in March but remain generally subdued in the economy. Industry detail showed that downward pressure in trucking rates continued in April, led by the fourth consecutive monthly decline in long-distance truckload rates.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the producer price index (PPI) rose 0.2 percent in April from March’s levels. This falls short of consensus estimates of a 0.3 percent gain and follows a 0.6 percent gain in the previous month. As was the case in March, much of the gain during the month was driven by energy prices, which rose 1.8 percent. However, this was offset by a 1.1 percent decline in food prices and a 0.5 percent fall in trade service prices in April. The core PPI, which excludes the often-volatile energy, food and trade services components of wholesale prices, rose by 0.4 percent as year-over-year growth climbed to 2.2 percent

Core producer price inflation stabilized after decelerating in recent months

Market watchers and policymakers typically use the PPI to gain some insight into what the underlying pressures of inflation are in the economy. The PPI measures the prices that businesses receive for the goods and services that they provide, and is often seen as a bellwether of upcoming increases in consumer prices. This morning’s core PPI results would suggest that overall inflation may be stabilizing after softening considerably since the end of 2018.

Long-distance truckload rates keep falling

Industry detail in the April PPI data showed that rates in the trucking industry continued to slide from the multi-year highs seen in mid-2018. Producer prices for General Freight Trucking fell 0.6 percent in April, following declines of 1.1 percent and 0.3 percent decline in March and February. Year-over-year growth in overall trucking rates has now fallen to 4.9 percent, marking the slowest pace of rate inflation since the end of 2017.

Rates have tumbled fast at the start of the year

Details in the trucking industry show that the weakness in truckload rates continues to stem from the long-distance side of the industry. Full truckload long-distance rates followed up March’s plunge by dropping by 0.9 percent in April. This marks the fourth consecutive monthly decline in long-distance full truckload rates as year-over-year growth tumbled to 3.8 percent. Local trucking rates also declined during the month, but fell by a more modest 0.5 percent as yearly growth remained strong at 9.3 percent. Long-distance less-than-truckload (LTL) rates were unchanged in April, though year-over-year growth slipped slightly to 3.9 percent.

Behind the Numbers

April’s headline results were roughly in line with expectations, though the increase in core wholesale prices was noticeably stronger than expected. From a monetary policy standpoint, inflation data from both the PPI and consumer prices had softened significantly in recent months, opening the door for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve to help stimulate inflation. However, the surprisingly strong GDP results from the first quarter and firming inflation trends would suggest that the Fed is likely to hold on making a change in its current policy. For the time being, growth in the overall economy is proceeding at a healthy pace, leaving little reason to add additional monetary stimulus into the mix.

On the trucking side, the decline in PPI trucking data is a mix of both demand and supply conditions, both of which are currently putting downward pressure on rates in the industry. Carriers spent the better part of 2018 adding capacity in the industry in an effort to keep up with what was at the time a strong economic expansion. This increased capacity has been met with slowing demand growth in the freight economy, which sputtered during the first quarter despite the blockbuster GDP results. It is likely that freight activity will begin to pick up in upcoming months, but the current trend of decelerating rate inflation is likely to continue, as the gains in volume will likely not be enough to fill all of the additional capacity in the market. It is worth noting that historically, PPI data for trucking grows approximately 2.0-2.5 percent each year, so the current pace of growth is still fairly strong. As such, much of the recent decline can be viewed as a reset in the industry after 2018’s historically strong performance, and rates have further to go before things are back to normal.  

Ibrahiim Bayaan is FreightWaves’ Chief Economist. He writes regularly on all aspects of the economy and provides context with original research and analytics on freight market trends. Never miss his commentary by subscribing.

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Ibrahiim Bayaan, Chief Economist & Market Expert

Ibrahiim covers developments and trends in the global economy. His focus is on understanding the links between movements in the macroeconomy and the implications for freight markets. Ibrahiim is also a one of FreightWaves’ Market Experts. Prior to FreightWaves, Ibrahiim spent nearly a decade building up the forecasting capabilities and creating the economic messaging at UPS. Ibrahiim and his family live in Atlanta, Georgia.

17 Comments

  1. I’ve been reading for 15 years there’s a shortage of truck drivers and it is expected to get worse. Now I’m reading that there’s an overcapacity? Someone please explain.

    1. Simple, it’s like the economic demand and supply. When people aren’t buying, prices go down, when something is in high demand, prices go up. When demand goes down, the need of drivers go down, when demand goes up, the need of drivers go up.

      So with demand down, the amount of drivers needed is down. So as of right now, there is no shortage of drivers at the moment, but when the demand goes up, and more drivers are needed to try and keep up with the demand of goods, there will be a driver sortage.

    2. Very simple my friend. When there is real demand in summer time globalist mafia trying to push idea into masses that they don’t need so many trucks so drivers don’t ask more money when they really can . And otherwise when it is winter globalists trying to make illusion that they is a lot of work so people buy more trucks.

      1. It is possible to have “over capacity” and strong rates—don’t pull cheap freight.

  2. What does this mean for truckers in the future? I was thinking at 44 to get a CDL and drive. Should I reconsider?

  3. If frieght is,so weak why I’m I doing 25 to 27 every week in think there sweating thses little shit ass company’s shutting down and there not gonna have them to run there cheap 64 cent a mile junk

  4. If i was wanting to buy a tractor and startup as a Owner Operator do you think it would be a good decision or do you think it would fail at the very start if freight has dropped on the money side how could you possibly make a living as a owner op.

  5. What a bunch of malarkey. The rates have not slipped. The demand for goods has slowed and the brokerage companies are keeping more money in their pockets and starving the industry. Trucking companies are going under left and right because of a oversaturation of brokers and companies trying to get away with paying cheap freight rates. Oil goes up, diesel fuel prices rise, ELD mandates gets shoved down our throats and trucks arent as efficient at moving due to this. The roads are more unsafe now then before the ELD disaster and this causes insurance rates to go up. It is all cyclical. Greed is driving this downturn plan and simple. Rates are down across the board to the end user at over 35%. Couple that with a very wet winter and spring and it is a recipe for disaster.

    1. Simple shut it down force them to raise the rates so we can make a living and say no to cheap freight stop the import of drivers from foreign country s and it’s that simple we must units or sink

  6. We need a old school truckers strike. If no one picks it up the rates will go up. These brokers cant do our jobs.

  7. Nonyabizniz
    Your comment is exactly ON POINT
    ONE WORD ONLY “GREED”
    People need to stop driving for pennies and go on strike!
    5 days only would be enough. What are we gonna lose for not driving for 5 days. All truckers at the same time!
    Just take a 5 day vacation. Wherever you are. Stop!
    Make it happen!

    1. Why doesn’t anyone tell the real story,fuel cost for large fleets are half of sign price,the FSC is artificially inflated,they ATA is getting caught in the largest racketeering scam in history,in September I will release info showing the proof on social media.Scams up.

  8. trucking rates are sliding because of brokers as long as there are more broker loads Len personal carriers this is gonna continue to happen and the only one that gets hurt is the drivers

  9. I don’t like my ELD either however as professional drivers we need to stop complaining about them. No driver can deny the safety aspects of HOS rules which protect us drivers from being pushed to drive when not safe—see the recent $80 million court case won by a driver who was forced to drive during his 34 and falsify his logs but he had a wreck due to fatigue. And those idiots who use the shoulder to take pee breaks and then cars run into them, they are kgetting pounded by courts because the driver would not be parked illegally on shoulder if he could manage his clock better. Complaining about ELDs is like complaining we have to stop at red lights. The ELDs are not the problem because the ELD only enforces the rules, the same dang rules that have always been there. Either you obey the rules or you don’t, and a driver struggles with his ELD because he is used to running without rules and with his ELD now he is uncomfortable and unskilled with trip planning. If you are late for an appointment do you tell your customer it was because you ran out of time because you drove the speed limit and had to stop to allow pedestrians to cross? If yes then you need to get out of the truck and find a job you can handle.

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