Ocean shipping is the “canary in the coal mine” for how coronavirus will impact the global economy. And according to shipping executives speaking at the Tradewinds Shipowners Forum New York event on Thursday, global markets need to focus more on this particular canary. It’s in trouble.
“I think the markets and many people are still underestimating the knock-on effects that the coronavirus will have,” warned Angela Chao, CEO of the Foremost Group, a dry bulk shipping owner that does considerable business with China.
“Even yesterday, the U.S. [stock markets] were still up,” she said. Just one example of potentially excessive optimism: Shares of crude-tanker owner DHT Holdings (NYSE: DHT) are up 10% since Friday, as investors bet on a V-shaped post-virus bounce.
“There’s still not a full realization of the interruptions to the workforce, of people trying to get back to work in China, to our supply chains. All of that is going to have a tremendous effect,” said Chao.
“People are still likening the coronavirus to SARS,” she lamented, insisting that this is a mistake. “The viruses are very different and more importantly, China’s position in the global economy, both in terms of its connectedness as well as its impact, is completely different.” She noted that SARS was a “1% blip” for China’s economy. Today, a 1% change in China’s GDP would equate to 10 times the nominal value.
“China also has the biggest expenditure of tourists by far. Back in 2003 [when SARS struck], it was the seventh most important tourist population. So, this [drop in Chinese tourists to other countries] will have an immediate knock-on effect on world economies,” she said.
On a positive note, she said that “the sharper the reduction, the swifter and broader the impact of stimulus of the Chinese government.” Large-scale stimulus is already underway.
Other panelists at the Tradewinds event echoed Chao’s concerns. “The challenges related to coronavirus are immense,” cautioned Jason Klopfer, managing director of Navig8 America LLC, which oversees the U.S. operations of Navig8 Group, an owner of tankers. “I don’t think we’ve even scratched the surface of the knock-on effects we’re going to see in the market, certainly in the upcoming weeks, if not months, and perhaps years,” Klofper said.
According to Kirstin Holth, global head of ocean industries at the bank DNB ASA, “The virus is really hitting and I think it is being underestimated. Beyond the first wave, there will be the second, third and fourth waves that are coming that will affect the economy. It will really have an impact on GDP, not just in China, but across the world, and that will have an impact on all of us [in shipping].”
Robert Bugbee, president of Scorpio Tankers (NYSE: STNG) and Scorpio Bulkers (NYSE: SALT), highlighted just how ugly it could get in the dry bulk shipping sector due to the coronavirus outbreak.
“On the finance side, one of the things we’ve learned is you’d better be prepared for one of these things before they come, because when they come, it happens too quickly,” he said. “You either have the liquidity before it comes or you don’t. With Scorpio Bulkers, we had a fair amount of liquidity and since it [coronavirus] started, the CFO has literally been doing everything he can as fast as he can to raise more liquidity, because you’ve got a short window and after that, there’s not much you can do. Very soon the game changes to: Which companies can survive?”
According to John Lycouris, CEO of Dorian LPG USA, a subsidiary of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) tanker owner Dorian LPG (NYSE: LPG), “There’s going to be less demand for LPG, less demand for LNG [liquefied natural gas], for crude, and petroleum products. We think it’s going to affect this quarter and next quarter and there’s going to be a general slowdown for everybody in the wider shipping industry.”
Dorian LPG has a vessel currently in a Chinese shipyard, so Lycouris was able to give an account of what’s transpiring. “We have a ship in China, in a shipyard, with the crew quarantined. We are experiencing this issue firsthand. Keeping our crew safe is our first concern. We have managed to get some of the people who didn’t want to stay onboard repatriated and have brought other people in.
“The shipyard has been extremely careful with the proper vetting of people and allowing people to go onboard but not come into contact with crew. So, we have some interesting information coming back to us. It shows how seriously China has taken this matter. They’re carefully trying to progress with business as soon as possible, but there are delays. People cannot travel. Technicians and superintendents cannot easily come into China because of the 14-day quarantine period. These are some of the issues we’re facing.”
He also commented on LPG vessel-unloading issues in China, confirming that these operations are continuing. “We do have LPG ships coming into China. We actually have a couple of ships there right now. With LPG discharges, there is really no human interface, so there’s not a problem,” he said.
The same may not be true for operations of large containerships at Chinese ports, however. Industry professionals speaking to FreightWaves pointed to potential complications ahead for liner schedules, given that these vessels will have a Chinese pilot and Chinese port workers onboard as they load in China, and will then sail to destinations like Los Angeles and Long Beach for unloading, where American pilots and longshoreman will have interactions with the same crew. More FreightWaves/American Shipper articles by Greg Miller
Tom Kingsley
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madam rose
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hamid reza asgari
سلام من حمید رضا عسگری مهندس صنایع عنوان مقاله من تاثیر کرونا بر حمل و نقل است امروزه بازار را یک ابزاری به نام حمل و نقل مانیتورینگ میکند و انسان با دیدن حمل و نقل هر جایی به چالش یا فاکتور جهش اقتصادی میرسد اما بیماری کرونا که یک ویروس است و منبع ان بزرگترین بازار دنیا رامسکوت نگه داشته است و این سکون با دیدن حمل و نقل در سراسر جهان به چشم میاید اما به لحاظ روانی کسی که با مرگ در حال مبارزه است چقدر دنبال سود و زیان است؟و این بیتفاوتی را با فاکتورهای بسیاری اضافه کنیم که اولین و مهمترین عامل ترس دیگران از کل مجموعه کشور چین است عامل بعدی تعطیلی اجباری صنایع مختلف به خاطر درختی بودن شیوع این بیماری است و برای مثال کشتی های بزرگ در دریای بالتیک تا5000 واحد تقاضا برای این نوع کشتی وجود داشت که الان به کمتر از 100 رسیدهو مسئله بعدی تاثیر حجم کالا در قیمت ان و مسئله بعدی کم شدن تقاضا که باعث پائین امدن سرعت حمل و نقل مشود که اگر بخواهیم مقاله ای در مورد هر کدام از این علل بنویسیم خود یک مقاله طولانی ستمسله مهم این است که حمل و نقل مانند دو بال یک پرنده است که شکسته شدن یک بال باعث میشود پرنده نتواند پرواز کند چون تمام حمل و نقل ها یکی از مسیر های رفت یا برگشت مستقیما به کشور یک میلیلرد نفری میرسدو چون درگیر این ویروس هستند مستقیما یا حرکت نمیکند یا هزینه رفت و برگشت را از یک نفر میگیرد و این دقیقا باعث بالا رفتن قیمت تمام شده میشوداین مختصری از نظرات من بود امیدوارم مورد استفاده قرار بگیرد
henlen grace
I am so Happy to be writing this article in here, i am here to explore blogs forum about the wonderful and most safe cure for HERPES SIMPLEX VIRUS . I was positive to the deadly Virus called HERPES and i lost hope because i was rejected even by my closet friends. i searched online to know and inquire about cure for HERPES and i saw Dr ABILI testimony online on how he was cured so many persons from Herpes Disease so i decided to contact the great herbalist because i know that nature has the power to heal everything. i contacted him to know how he can help me and he told me never to worry that he will help me with the natural herbs from God! after 2 days of contacting him, he told me that the cure has been ready and he sent it to me via DHL and it got to me after 14 days! i used the medicine as he instructed me (MORNING and EVENING) and i was cured! its really like a dream but i’m so happy! that’s the reason i decided to also add more comment of Him so that more can be saved just like me! and if you need his help,contact his Email now ([email protected]) or him on whatsApp number +2349034412845.
he also cure followHIV/Aids*Kidney failure*Arthritis*Diabetes*Hypertension*Ebola and Other Hemorrhagic Fevers*The Opioid Epidemic*Antibiotic Resistance*Vaccine Hesitancy*Candida Auris*Stroke*Obesity*Infertility/Impotency*Cancer*Eye Problem*Skin Problem*Fibroid Tumor*Ulcer*Prostate Problem*Asthma*Weight Management*Gonorrhea/Staphylococcus*Candidie*Low sperm can*Weak erection*Weak ejaculation*Pile*Elephantiasis*Skin Infection*Paralysis e.t.c*If you want your ex back.*If you always have bad dreams.*Herpes*Hpv
hamid reza asgari
سلام من حمید رضا عسگری مهندس صنایع عنوان مقاله من تاثیر کرونا بر حمل و نقل است امروزه بازار را یک ابزاری به نام حمل و نقل مانیتورینگ میکند و انسان با دیدن حمل و نقل هر جایی به چالش یا فاکتور جهش اقتصادی میرسد اما بیماری کرونا که یک ویروس است و منبع ان بزرگترین بازار دنیا رامسکوت نگه داشته است و این سکون با دیدن حمل و نقل در سراسر جهان به چشم میاید اما به لحاظ روانی کسی که با مرگ در حال مبارزه است چقدر دنبال سود و زیان است؟و این بیتفاوتی را با فاکتورهای بسیاری اضافه کنیم که اولین و مهمترین عامل ترس دیگران از کل مجموعه کشور چین است عامل بعدی تعطیلی اجباری صنایع مختلف به خاطر درختی بودن شیوع این بیماری است و برای مثال کشتی های بزرگ در دریای بالتیک تا5000 واحد تقاضا برای این نوع کشتی وجود داشت که الان به کمتر از 100 رسیدهو مسئله بعدی تاثیر حجم کالا در قیمت ان و مسئله بعدی کم شدن تقاضا که باعث پائین امدن سرعت حمل و نقل مشود که اگر بخواهیم مقاله ای در مورد هر کدام از این علل بنویسیم خود یک مقاله طولانی ستمسله مهم این است که حمل و نقل مانند دو بال یک پرنده است که شکسته شدن یک بال باعث میشود پرنده نتواند پرواز کند چون تمام حمل و نقل ها یکی از مسیر های رفت یا برگشت مستقیما به کشور یک میلیلرد نفری میرسدو چون درگیر این ویروس هستند مستقیما یا حرکت نمیکند یا هزینه رفت و برگشت را از یک نفر میگیرد و این دقیقا باعث بالا رفتن قیمت تمام شده میشوداین مختصری از نظرات من بود امیدوارم مورد استفاده قرار بگیرد
Trustly Steven
Hello everybody!!!
I don’t just know the reason why some people is finding it difficult to believe that there is a cure for herpes, I have been suffering from herpes since last two years with my wife but today I am happy that I have been cured from it with the herbal medicine made by papa Egbe the great healer, I was browsing the internet searching for help when I came across a testimony shared by someone on how Papa Egbe cure Him from Herpes Virus. I quickly contacted him to get the cure and today i am now free from the virus, I am so much happy today that we have someone like this great healer out there,please sir keep your good work cause there are many out there who is in need of your healing medicine. Contact him now on his email: papaegbespiritualtemple @ gmail . com or whatsApp him on +(234) 8134959928
Amanda Roy
I am so Happy to be writing this article in here, i am here to explore
blogs forum about the wonderful and most safe cure for HERPES SIMPLEX VIRUS
. I was positive to the deadly Virus called HERPES and i lost hope
completely because i was rejected even by my closet friends. i searched
online to know and inquire about cure for HERPES and i saw Dr Godwin
testimony online on how he was cured so many persons from Herpes Disease so
i decided to contact the great herbalist because i know that nature has the
power to heal everything. i contacted him to know how he can help me and he
told me never to worry that he will help me with the natural herbs from
God! After 2 days of contacting him, he told me that the cure is ready and
he will send it to me via FEDEX or DHL and it will get to me after 4 days!
i used the medicine as he instructed me (MORNING and EVENING) and i was
cured! its really like a dream but i’m so happy! That’s the reason i
decided to also add more comment of Him so that more people can be saved
just like me! and if you need his help ,contact his Email: ( Drgodwin
<[email protected] you can massage
him on whatsapp @ +2348054615060
Noble1 suggests SMART truck drivers should UNITE & collectively cut out the middlemen from picking truck driver pockets ! UNITE , CONQUER , & PROSPER ! IMHO
Quote:
“China sacked senior officials over coronavirus outbreak
The backlash to China’s firing-spree
Criticism of the Chinese government has been on the rise following the slew of terminations and for poor management of the crisis. Exacerbating the whole fiasco was the death of a doctor whose early warnings were suppressed by authorities, and has now sparked widespread public anger.”
Quote :
” Some 242 deaths were recorded in Hubei, the epicentre of the outbreak, on Wednesday, making it the deadliest day of the COVID-19 outbreak and pushing the national death toll to 1,350. Figures released on Thursday morning also showed a huge increase in the number of cases, with 14,840 people diagnosed with the illness in one day and almost 60,000 infected overall.
Until yesterday, the number of people diagnosed in Hubei was stabilising, but this has changed as the Chinese province starts to include those diagnosed by CT scans.”