Driver shortages, booming exports reshape US-Mexico freight market

For trucking companies operating between the two countries, the export surge is translating into continued demand for northbound freight capacity.

“Northbound lanes out of the Coahuila and Nuevo León corridors continue to present higher load-to-truck ratios compared to southbound, keeping carriers selective and holding rates firm,” C.H. Robinson analysts wrote.

While demand for northbound capacity remains strong, volumes in the top international truck gateway of Laredo, Texas, has cooled in August, down 6.7% week over week. Laredo’s truckload rejection index (STRI.LRD) has also decreased to 6.69%, indicating capacity is loosening over the last seven days, according to SONAR data.

Driver shortages, visa enforcement constrain capacity

While freight demand remains strong, capacity is being constrained by a shrinking pool of drivers qualified to operate cross-border routes, C.H. Robinson reported.

Stricter enforcement of B-1 visas and English-language requirements is reducing the number of Mexican drivers willing or able to perform cross-border runs into the U.S. 

Increased scrutiny of shipping documentation, cargo values, weight declarations and cargo securement is also slowing operations and making carriers more selective about the freight they accept.

Because roughly 81% of Mexico’s land freight moves by truck, those constraints are having an outsized impact on cross-border supply chains, C.H. Robinson said.

“Carriers are willing to offer attractive rates and allocate capacity to shippers who make operations and compliance easy, rather than just going with the highest bidder,” the report stated.

Related: Laredo hits low-balance truck toll accounts with fines up to $2,000

Automotive softens, technology freight grows

The automotive sector, long considered the backbone of U.S.-Mexico freight flows, is showing signs of moderation.

Light-vehicle production in Mexico was essentially flat during the first half of 2026, declining 0.4%, while exports rose just 1.4%. Heavy-duty truck production and exports both fell by double digits.

C.H. Robinson noted that some manufacturers are adjusting production strategies amid tariff uncertainty, citing Toyota’s plan to shift Tacoma pickup production from Tijuana, Mexico, to San Antonio, Texas, once its expansion project is completed.

At the same time, technology-related freight is emerging as a major growth driver.

Mexico remains the top U.S. trading partner, accounting for nearly 17% of U.S. imports, and computing equipment has now surpassed automotive products as Mexico’s largest export category to the U.S. 

Intermediate imports signal continued freight growth

Another indicator pointing toward sustained freight demand is Mexico’s growing imports of intermediate goods used in manufacturing.

Imports of intermediate goods increased 30.9% year over year in June and now account for roughly 80% of Mexico’s total imports. Because those materials are used to manufacture future exports, C.H. Robinson said the trend suggests export growth could continue through the remainder of 2026.

Manzanillo congestion remains concern

The report also highlighted growing congestion at Mexico’s Port of Manzanillo, a Pacific Coast port and the country’s busiest container gateway.

Road construction on the Colima-Manzanillo highway, combined with capacity constraints inside the port, is creating long truck queues and unpredictable drayage transit times, C.H. Robinson said.

Container volumes through Mexican ports increased 3.1% during the first half of the year, with Manzanillo accounting for 43% of the country’s total container traffic. C.H. Robinson advised shippers to build additional buffer time into supply chains or consider alternative gateways such as Lázaro Cárdenas.

Why it matters: Strong export growth and rising technology shipments are keeping U.S.-Mexico freight demand elevated, but tightening driver availability, stricter border enforcement and infrastructure bottlenecks continue to limit capacity and support higher transportation rates.