Fleet demand stays strong despite July slowdown in Class 8 orders

“The sizable month-over-month decline doesn’t reflect a sudden drop in demand for new equipment but indicates a lack of 2026 build slots available as orders run up against full Class 8 backlogs,” ACT Research analyst Carter Vieth said in a blog post. 

Vieth said that uncertainty surrounding Environmental Protection Agency emissions regulations could also be delaying some purchasing decisions until manufacturers open 2027 order books.

FTR senior analyst Dan Moyer said calendar-year 2026 production is essentially sold out, shifting fleet attention toward model-year 2027 trucks and how manufacturers will navigate EPA emissions requirements.

“Overall, July’s preliminary order volume suggests that Class 8 demand remains healthy as activity normalizes from unusually strong winter and spring levels,” Moyer said in a statement. “The next phase of the cycle will depend more on production-related factors than on overall demand.”

Despite July’s sequential decline, FTR said the industry continues to post one of its strongest order years in recent memory.

Through July, 2026 Class 8 net orders are 120% higher than the same period last year. Orders placed during the current order season, spanning September 2025 through July 2026, have climbed 39% year over year, while rolling 12-month orders totaled 344,823 units.

Both research firms noted that manufacturers have not yet opened most 2027 order boards, limiting fleets’ ability to place additional orders even as freight fundamentals continue improving.

ACT also reported improving demand in the medium-duty market. Preliminary North American Classes 5-7 net orders reached 18,300 units in July, up 41% from a year earlier, with seasonally adjusted orders remaining above 20,000 units for the third consecutive month.

Used truck market rebounds

The improving outlook for new trucks comes as the used truck market also showed renewed strength in June.

According to ACT Research, same-dealer used Class 8 retail sales increased 9.6% from May, extending gains to 4.0% year over year. The average retail selling price climbed 2% month over month to $61,751, while remaining 1.5% above year-ago levels.

ACT Vice President Steve Tam said June’s retail rebound exceeded normal seasonal expectations even as auction and wholesale markets softened. Auction volumes fell 22% month over month, wholesale dealer activity slipped 4.8%, and total same-dealer market sales declined 5.1%, highlighting continued differences between retail demand and wholesale activity.

Chart: July North American Class 8 orders

Why it matters: The industry’s next growth phase depends less on customer demand than on when OEMs open 2027 production slots and finalize emissions strategies.