No más! Trailer makers maxed out as February orders stay strong

ACT Research preliminarily put February’s net order volume at 24,200, up 82% from a year ago but down 21% from January 2021 bookings. Orders on a rolling 12-month basis total 322,000, according to FTR.

Year-over-year comparisons will look especially strong in coming months compared to pandemic shutdowns in spring 2020. For example, net orders were effectively zero in April last year.

Surging freight markets continue to drive orders even after a record fourth quarter of 2020.   Most fleets have booked orders for delivery this year, especially dry and refrigerated vans. Lagging flatbed and other vocational segments expect to continue to recover with a rebound in manufacturing.

Supply chain bottlenecks

“[Manufacturers] are under pressure to fill these orders due to bottlenecks in the supply chain,” said Don Ake, FTR vice president of commercial vehicles. “Suppliers are facing worker shortages; some raw materials are scarce and there are still delays getting some imported parts through the West Coast ports.”

When that situation improves, expect steady production at high volumes for an extended time, Ake said.

“We are pushing the supply chain on many components and materials,” Stoughton’s Giesel said. “Concern will be the word of choice as we navigate through the coming months. There is not one [shortage] that seems to stick out but many.”

February’s sequential decline in net orders was greater than seasonal patterns would project. But it was directionally correct, according to Frank Maly, ACT director of transportation analysis and research. The industry backlog grew in February to its highest since March 2019 even as production rates ticked up only slightly.

“With many [manufacturers] reporting their capacity committed for the year, there may be some reluctance to push the backlog horizon out even further, on both the part of [manufacturers] and fleets,” Maly said.

Related articles:

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Maximizing trailer utilization: Why is it so hard?

Wabash National trailer order backlog suggests strong 2021

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