Stratfor: Shipping faces ‘new wave of maritime threats’

The Austin, Texas-based publisher and intelligence company said that although pirate attacks will continue to decline, maritime threats, such as militant attacks, will still pose a considerable challenge to global shipping companies.    Stratfor said the shipping industry is facing a “new wave of maritime threats” that includes not only piracy but “ideologically motivated militant attacks.”
   The Austin, Texas-based publisher and intelligence company said in an analysis posted on its website, “Piracy will continue to decline worldwide. However, maritime threats will still pose a considerable challenge to global shipping companies, especially in waterways in unstable regions.
   “If the maritime security threat around the Bab el-Mandeb strait shifts from financially motivated piracy attacks to ideologically motivated militant attacks, shipping companies will need to rethink their security measures,” the firm added.
   Stratfor noted that after three years of relatively calm waters between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, at least seven security incidents were reported in October.
   Two incidents last month included attacks on the Swift, a high-speed catamaran leased by the United Arab Emirates; and the USS Mason, a Navy destroyer. Stratfor said, those two attacks “were confirmed to have been carried out by Yemeni militants with land-based anti-ship missiles.” Meanwhile, the firm said two other attacks were likely carried out by Somali pirates.
   “Most concerning was an attempted attack on the Galicia Spirit, a liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker, involving a skiff loaded with explosives,” Stratfor said. “The skiff exploded prematurely, leaving the tanker unharmed, but the tactic harkens back al Qaeda attacks against USS Cole in 2000 and the MV Limburg in 2002.” Stratfor also noted how on Oct. 26, the oil tanker Melati Satu was attacked with a rocket-propelled grenade.
   “Regardless of motives, the fact that both Somali pirates and Yemeni militants appear to be active in the strait once again is troubling news for global shipping companies,” Stratfor said. “Overall, piracy has been declining worldwide, especially along strategic maritime routes.”
   Stratfor cites statistics from the International Maritime Bureau’s Piracy Reporting Center, which shows only a few attempts at piracy in the Bab el-Mandeb strait and the Strait of Malacca in recent years, down from the 200 or more that occurred between 2009 and 2011.
   “The decline in pirate attacks around the Bab al-Mandeb can be attributed to more frequent international naval patrols and the adoption of more aggressive defensive maneuvers by shipping companies,” Stratfor said.
   “Shipping companies should also be concerned by militant attacks, especially those emanating from Yemen,” the firm added. “Militants are often less deterred by the standard counterpiracy measures ships typically rely on, including accelerating, changing course, blocking pirates from reaching the deck and employing armed guards.”