U.S. Bank: Contract rates open 22-cent gap over spot freight

The report also ties the gap to trucking supply: capacity continues to exit the market faster than freight demand is declining. American Trucking Associations Chief Economist Bob Costello said “the industry is seeing a recovery, but that is nearly all due to excess capacity leaving the market,” according to an August column in Fleet Owner that the report cites.

Both rates remain well above last year. Spot linehaul in August was up 35.6% from August 2025, when it averaged $1.60 a mile, and contract was up 20.1% from $1.99. The index’s previous edition showed spot up 31% year over year in May.

Fuel offsets part of the spot decline

“Fuel costs are increasing while linehaul pricing is softening, making it important for transportation teams to closely analyze the components of their freight spend,” said Jeff Pape, head of transportation for U.S. Bank Corporate Payment Systems, in the release.

Fuel surcharges rose to $0.70 a mile in August from $0.62 in July, a 13% increase, according to the index. With fuel included, spot rates fell 3.4% to $2.87 a mile, while contract rose to $3.09 from $3.00.

“Stable rates do not necessarily mean stable transportation costs,” said Jennifer Bullock, freight audit and analytics manager at CommScope, in the report. “Shippers need to separate fuel from linehaul to understand where pricing pressure is actually changing.”

“Fuel made up about 21% of the per-mile broker-to-shipper spot rate on dry van loads in June,” said Patrick Pretorius, general manager of DAT’s shipper segment. “By August, it was 24%, and diesel is trending higher into the fall.”

FreightWaves reported last month that rising diesel costs could push more trucking capacity out of the market in the fourth quarter, as carrier operating margins remain below prior-cycle peaks.

“Higher fuel costs push smaller, thinner-margin carriers out of the market, which adds to an already shrinking driver pool,” Pretorius said.

Load counts slip in August

Spot loads in the index fell 3.2% in August to 1,264,897 from 1,306,819 in July, and contract loads fell 1.3% to 740,249 from 750,371.

The August declines followed sharper swings in May and June: spot loads fell 15.4% in May to 1,110,784, then rebounded 22.4% in June to 1,359,852.

Contract loads were down 27.7% from 1,024,398 in August 2025. Spot loads were down 5.7% from 1,341,626 over the same period.

“Shippers who’ve spent two years squeezing rate per mile would do well to shift focus to consolidation and network planning, as the market is tightening from two directions at once,” Pretorius added.