European ports weak forecast

  The latest edition of the monthly Global Port Tracker forecast prepared by Hackett Associates and the Bremen Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics says shipments to European ports for the remainder of the year and early 2012 could be weak.
  “Much depends on the level of confidence and this depends on the handling of the financial crisis, mainly in Greece.” writes Ben Hackett of Hackett Associates. “Our view is that the coming months will follow the normal seasonal patterns, but with very little or no peak season, as importers use the
reliability of the carriers to manage their inventories and to avoid keeping excessive stocks.”
  “This suggests that October will be weak and the following three months will result in negative growth month-on-month. The danger is that if we compare 2011 with 2008, Europe went into a trade flow nosedive when Lehman Brothers went into bankruptcy, some 9 to 12 months behind the U.S. If the same time delay will be repeated, then early 2012 do not look positive,” he adds.
  The report says year-to-date, total imports are 7.3 percent higher than in 2010. Northern European imports are 8.5 percent higher and imports to the Mediterranean and Black Sea region is 5.1 percent higher.
   It adds year-to-date, total European exports are 8.2 per cent higher than in 2010, while Northern European exports are 10 percent higher and the Mediterranean and Black Sea region is 4.8 percent higher.