The firm estimates a total of 1.69 million TEUs in vessel capacity will be delivered in the coming year, more than twice the amount projected to be sold for scrap.
The latest report comes after Alphaliner projected ship scrapping to reach 750,000 TEUs in 2017, surpassing the record 655,000 TEUs sold for demolition the previous year.
According to the report, 78 percent of the expected new containership capacity will be on vessels with more than 10,000 TEUs.
“Even accounting for a potential slippage of about 250,000 TEUs, with some deliveries likely to be deferred by ship owners, the projected capacity additions would still reach 1.44 million TEUs, with net fleet growth after slippage and scrapping forecast to reach 3.4 percent this year,” the firm said.
The new deliveries are likely to exacerbate, or at the very least prolong, the rampant overcapacity throughout the container shipping industry that has put intense downward pressure on rates and seen carriers pile up massive losses in the past few years.
Increases in prices for scrapped tonnage, along with falling charter rates for containerships, has stoked fears among industry analysts that vessels whose charters are ending are worth more as scrap metal than if they were redeployed on another charter.
“Forced cascading, triggered by the incessant flow of ULCS (ultra-large containership) newbuildings, will continue to create havoc among smaller ship sizes, hampering any substantial rise in containership rates,” Alphaliner said.
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The Signal at Chattanooga Choo Choo • Chattanooga, TN Register NowThe night before F3. FreightTech100 companies honored. FreightTech 25 and Shipper of Choice winners revealed live. Cocktail reception into dinner and live music - 300 industry leaders in one purpose-built room.
The Signal at Chattanooga Choo Choo • Chattanooga, TN Register NowIndustry-defining keynotes, rapid-fire technology demos, and industry leaders networking in experiences across Chattanooga - plus the inaugural F3 Awards Dinner featuring the FreightTech and Shipper of Choice reveals.
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