O Captain! No Captain?

O Captain! No Captain?

Thomas Timlen Asia liason officer, BIMCO tt@bimco.org

On Second Thought'

   Students of literature already know that Walt Whitman's poem written 145 years ago actually had nothing to do with the captain of a ship, but in fact was a metaphor regarding President Abraham Lincoln's assassination. (Not being a student of literature, I can thank Wikipedia for that information.)
   My slight adjustment of Whitman's verse, with apologies, aims at capturing the spirit of anxiety within the ocean shipping industry that before long there won't be enough captains available to command our ships, nor enough crew to serve under them.
   Merchant shipping is a cyclical business, and during the good times as the merchant fleet expands to meet increasing freight volumes, the supply of qualified seafarers sometimes has been stretched to the limit.
   Twenty years ago this led BIMCO and the International Shipping Federation (ISF) to team up with the Institute for Employment Research at the University of Warwick to establish an accurate assessment illustrating the actual supply of available seafarers and compare this with the demand at that time. The project also developed projections of future supply and demand.
   These studies have subsequently been conducted every five years, and based on the findings there have been consistent calls for enhanced training and recruitment efforts to maintain an adequate supply of officers and ratings as projections indicated ever-increasing demand for manpower.
   Working against seafarer recruitment efforts, developments that detract from the appeal of a life at sea have surfaced and in some cases intensified over the past several years. The unfair treatment of seafarers in the aftermath of maritime accidents is hardly encouraging to young people considering a career at sea. Although fortunately few in number, cases have received ample media attention showing seafarers imprisoned or kept under house arrest for extended periods of time far from home, family and loved ones, often when there is little or no evidence of wrongdoing on their part. This serves only to stymie recruitment efforts.
   Another detriment to recruitment is the continued threat of piracy and kidnappings by Somali pirates. Now regularly reported in the mainstream media, such incidents do not portray a career at sea as one offering a safe and secure working environment, but rather illustrate serious risks of extended confinement under harsh conditions and at worst, death at the hands of the pirates.
   Not so long ago, as the market enjoyed an extended period of growth while reports of piracy and unfair treatment of seafarers persisted, it seemed a shortage of qualified officers and crew was imminent. But this didn't happen. Why not?
   The global downturn in 2008 resulted in a dramatic nosedive in freight volumes, and many ships in essentially all sectors being laid up. Just when the industry was approaching a real and potentially devastating manpower shortage, so much tonnage was taken offline that panic was averted.
   However, markets are improving and ships are coming out of layup, so is a manpower shortage waiting just around the corner? The findings of the latest BIMCO-ISF Manpower Study, conducted again with the Institute for Employment Research at the University of Warwick and now joined by the International Maritime Conventions Research Center at Dalian University, suggest it may be too soon to press the panic button.
   The study shows that industry calls for enhanced training and recruitment have been heeded, with supply and demand of seafarers essentially in balance in 2010. Far from reducing training and recruitment efforts in the aftermath of the 2008 downturn, the number of available qualified seafarers indicates such efforts persisted during the past two years (and, unsurprisingly, during the years leading up to the 2008 downturn).
   One can safely say the industry has achieved the result that was sought after. The message delivered every five years since 1990 hit home and the countries supplying crews ramped up their training efforts. But by no means can we relax; valid concerns remain.
   While the supply of ratings, determined to be 747,000, equals the estimated demand for these seafarers, the present supply of 624,000 officers falls 2 percent short of the estimated 637,000 positions that must be filled. The shortage of officers is more acute in specialized sectors such as tankers and offshore support vessels.
   Although countries like China, India, the Philippines and several Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries have made notable improvements in their manpower supply numbers during the past five years, there is still a need to maintain training and recruitment efforts to ensure a future pool of suitably qualified and high caliber seafarers.
   This is not only important with regard to the safe operation of merchant ships, but is equally important with the many shore-based jobs in which experience at sea is essential.
   In respect to officers, maintaining training, recruitment and retention efforts will not be good enough to correct the current shortage. Here increased efforts in all of these areas must be implemented. Furthermore, if general economic conditions continue to improve globally in the absence of enhanced training and recruitment, the world could face a potential 11 percent shortage of officers by 2015.
   Under such circumstances, the prospect of ships not being able to operate due to a lack of qualified officers could become a reality. If that happens, Whitman's lines may be subject to additional revision:
   The ship is anchored safe and sound,
         its voyage closed and done,
   The next alas, we'll have to pass,
         a captain can't be found.