IATA also said there is evidence that air freight is no longer gaining market share from ocean freight.
'Air freight has stopped gaining market share from ocean but a sharp acceleration in world trade growth has taken over to boost volumes,' IATA said in its Cargo eChartbook economic update for the second quarter of 2010. 'Consumer confidence is mixed but business investment intentions are surprisingly strong.
Ocean freight is fully competing in the recovery with 20 percent volume increases and 60 percent-plus yield gains. All ocean transport modes show that world trade was rising very strongly during the first quarter of 2010.'
IATA said that the restocking phase is largely over now that sales are more or less in line with ordering.
'Clearly the economic expansion, outside Europe, is still strong and likely to generate further growth in air freight shipments,' IATA said. 'But it now looks as though the dominant impetus to the recent air freight recovery — the business inventory cycle — has come to an end.'
Movement in the semiconductor market from air to ocean is another signal the restocking phase is ending, the association said.
'Shipper confidence rose to very high levels in April and the key semiconductor sector continues to expand shipments at a 50 percent-plus rate,' IATA said. 'But the end of the business inventory cycle will put a brake on freight growth.
'Semiconductors are still one of the important low-volume/high-value goods that get shipped by air, particularly when manufacturers of computers and other electronic goods need to restock at the start of an economic recovery. The shipment of these components is growing at a pace of over 50 percent, but will slow as the inventory cycle ends. Falling prices mean more semiconductors are being shipped by sea. Other electronic goods, whose high values have yet to fall, will start to take over as the dominant high-value/low volumes goods shipped by air.'
Finally, IATA said the volcanic eruption in Iceland in mid-April did little to stop the momentum of air freight growth globally, with volume growing 25 percent in April after growing 26 percent in the first quarter of 2010.
