Port Tracker: First U.S. imports rise in February
Import cargo volume at the nation's major retail container ports is projected to total 12.7 million containers for 2009, the lowest level since 14 million TEUs were imported in 2004, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released Wednesday by the National Retail Federation and IHS Global Insight.
The revised number is significantly below last year's total but shows continuing growth over what was forecast this summer, IHS Global Insight and NRF added. In August, Port Tracker forecast 12.3 million TEUs for the year and in September increased the number to 12.5 million. The numbers have been revised upward to reflect higher projected imports for the remainder of the year as retailers anticipate that economic conditions will begin to improve.
'As we move closer to the end of the year and get updated numbers, we're seeing a steady improvement with year-over-year declines becoming smaller,' said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. 'This doesn't mean that the challenges are behind us, but retailers are slowly starting to import more merchandise and that's a positive sign.'
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| Gold |
U.S. ports surveyed handled 1.17 million TEUs in August, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. That was a rise of 6 percent from July but down 15 percent from August 2008, marking the 26th month in a row to see a year-over-year decline. Volume for September was estimated at 1.14 million TEUs, down 16 percent from last year.
October, traditionally the peak month of the year, is forecast to be 1.17 million TEUs, down 15 percent from last October. Volume will then begin its annual downward cycle in November, which is forecast at 1.09 million TEUs, down 11 percent from last year. December — previously forecast at a 2 percent decline from last year — is now expected to be flat at 1.06 million TEUs.
January is forecast at 1.03 million TEUs, down 3 percent from January 2009 rather than the 18 percent drop expected a month ago. February 2010 is forecast at 973,872 TEUs — below 1 million for the first time since April, but up 16 percent from February 2009 and the first year-over-year increase in more than two years.
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| Bingham |
'As we come to the end of peak season, very weak monthly import container traffic volume is still the pattern,' said IHS Global Insight Economist Paul Bingham. 'Volumes have been increasing month-to-month, but from a very low trough going back to last winter. The underlying seasonal pattern will still affect volumes in the next six months with the slow season seeing declines in monthly volumes again.'
All U.S. ports covered by Port Tracker — Los Angeles-Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York-New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast — are rated 'low' for congestion, the same as last month.
