Report: 90% of Asia-Europe vessels to exceed 14,000 TEUs by 2020

The current percentage of vessels with capacity in excess of 14,000 TEUs will double within the next 3 years, according to an analysis from Lars Jensen, CEO of SeaIntelligence Consulting.    The vast majority of container vessels serving the Asia-Europe trade lane will sport a capacity of more than 14,000 TEUs, according to a recent analysis from Lars Jensen, CEO of SeaIntelligence Consulting, citing the latest SeaIntel Sunday Spotlight.
   “Analysis of the delivery profile of mega-vessels in the coming years will lead to a large shift in the vessels used in the Asia-Europe trade,” Jensen said. “In the coming years we will see a doubling of the number of 18,000-22,000-TEU vessels being delivered, and if these are phased into the Asia-Europe trade (which is highly likely), this means that by 2020 almost 90 percent of all vessels in that trade [will be] larger than 14,000 TEUs.”
   Six years ago, only 5 percent of the vessels deployed on the Asia-Europe trade had a capacity in excess of 14,000 TEUs, noted Jensen. Today, almost half the vessels in the lane are of that size.
   But this prediction is not set in stone.
   “The follow-up conclusion to this will then depend on demand growth,” said Jensen. “The past six years have seen subdued growth, leading to a steady decline in the number of weekly services offered by the carriers. The escalation of vessel sizes to 2020 will only continue that trend unless we see an unexpected sustained surge in demand.”
   Carriers ultimately have a choice, according to Jensen, either duplicate services and “further drive commoditization” or differentiate their services to create unique offerings. The “strategically valuable choice lies in taking a step back and pursue 10,000-14,000-TEU [ships] instead of 22,000-TEU vessels,” said Jensen.
    Several major global carriers have launched ultra-large containerships on Asia-Europe alliance services this year, with the three 21,413-TEU OOCL vessels (OOCL Germany, OOCL Japan and OOCL United Kingdom) serving on the OCEAN Alliance’s French Asia Line 5 (FAL5/LL1) service, while the 20,568-TEU Madrid Maersk operates on the 2M Alliance’s AE10/Silk service.