Drewry: Carriers winning rates vs. cost battle

According to the London-based shipping consultancy, reduced costs and focus on operational efficiency will offset the large amount of capacity entering the global fleet in 2015.    The London-based shipping consultancy Drewry expects container shipping lines to improve profitability in 2015 as unit costs decrease.
   In Drewry’s latest edition of its Container Forecaster, the consultancy says this improved profitability could come even as a record number of vessel deliveries are scheduled to occur this year.
   “Carriers are winning the battle between rates and costs,” said Neil Dekker, Drewry’s director of container research. “However, there are issues such as port congestion which are both costly and outside the direct control of carriers.”
   The global container fleet is expected to grow 7.2 percent in 2015, faster than the projected 5.3-percent growth in demand. But Drewry says industry unit costs will continue to decline at a faster pace than average freight rates, resulting in increased profitability. Bunker costs fell 50 percent, year-over-year, in the final quarter of 2014, and, according to report, anecdotal evidence suggests that carriers intend to increase annual contract rates on all trades with their key beneficial cargo owner clients this year.
   “Drewry estimates that the industry will finish 2014 in the black, thanks mainly to the contributions of a handful of lines such as Maersk and CMA CGM, while others will have lost money,” Drewry said. “More carriers are expected to be profitable in 2015, provided that a number of tailwinds prevail. These include: continuing carrier focus on vessel deployment; fuel costs remaining low; recovering demand; successful outcome of annual BCO contract negotiations; and new operational alliances delivering greater market stability.
   “This is a lot to ask for from an industry with a poor track record of profitability. But there are signs that carriers are starting to believe in themselves and are backing up their positive rhetoric with actions. Network planning, slow steaming and the introduction of the mega-alliances will all help the drive towards a more profitable industry.”
   Dekker speculated that “this could be the year that carriers start to turn the corner in terms of operational profitability,” though Drewry cautioned that “container carriers have a habit of undoing good work with poor discipline. But the influences that are shaping the industry right now (including recent consolidations) prove that carriers have pushed profitability and value for money up the board room agenda.”