Stimson: Brexit could impact more than just UK trade

The United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union last week could have implications for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership between the U.S. and EU, as well as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, according to experts at the Stimson Center.    The United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union last week could impact more than just trade with the UK, according to the nonprofit public policy institute the Stimson Center.
   The so-called “Brexit” may have implications for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the U.S. and EU, as well as the sweeping Trans-Pacific Partnership, which brings together 12 nations in Asia, Oceania and the Americas.
   These free trade agreements and others like them are considered vital to both domestic and global growth and fair competition. The UK government recently estimated the TTIP alone would have injected up to 10 billion euros (U.S. $11.06 billion) into the British economy.
   President Obama, however, said in a recent interview that the UK would have to wait its turn to negotiate any new trade deals with the U.S. if the country voted to leave the EU.
   “This is not going to be a fun ride,” said Stimson Center’s Trade21 Director Nathaniel F. Olson. “Where exactly it leads in six months, two years, five years is impossible to know — the day-after posturing already makes that clear. Yet one simple thing we do know is that what happens next can make things either better or worse.”
   Olson argues that the U.S. should make a new bilateral agreement with the UK a top priority following the Brexit vote, but that it also must make an effort to salvage the TTIP.
   “And the TPP has become even more important,” he added. “It would go far in securing the kind of rules-based trading system that the UK’s decision threatens to throw off-course for Europe and the wider world.”
   “It’s sad to see the British turn their backs on their thousand year history of looking outwards. They will likely come to regret it, but in the short-term it falls on us to pick up the pieces and move on,” said William Reinsch, distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center.
   “Now is the time for the U.S. to stand firm in recognizing the interconnected world we all live in and the role a strong, rules-based trading system plays in it,” he added. “That means reaffirming our commitment to the E.U. and concluding TTIP and pushing ahead with approving TPP.
   “It also means making a firm commitment to the U.K. and the reaffirmation of the special relationship we have long had. President Obama may have put them in the back of the queue when it comes to negotiating a trade agreement, but he should put that aside and move quickly to work out a bilateral agreement that builds on our relationship.”