Containership capacity crunch by 2012?

Containership capacity crunch by 2012?    The container shipping industry could be headed for a shortfall in vessel capacity, according to an analysis released this week by Australia-based Macquarie Equities Research.
   The analysis, reported by IFW Thursday, predicts the shortfall due to shipping lines' reluctance to invest profits in the first half of 2010 in new vessel orders.
   'Based on our view that volumes will achieve minimum growth of 8 percent a year, we are potentially facing a shortage of capacity in 2012,' said Vital Signs, the authors of the Macquarie report. 'The order book as a percentage of the current fleet is approaching lows last seen in 2003, ahead of the last boom in containership profits. Due to solid deliveries year-to-date, the order book has fallen to 26.4 percent of the cellular fleet, from 36.1 percent in January, and a peak of 64.2 percent in November 2007.'
   American Shipper reported in May that the historical point at which the industry begins vessel ordering is when the order book reaches 20 percent of the existing fleet. Philippe Hoelinger, vice president of SeaAxis, said in April that point probably wouldn't be reached until the third quarter of 2011. Since that time, Evergreen and APL have announced new ship orders.