WTO: WORLD TRADE TO INCREASE MARGINALLY THIS YEAR

WTO: WORLD TRADE TO INCREASE MARGINALLY THIS YEAR    The value of world exports will increase by about 1 percent this year, the World Trade Organization said in its latest report on international trade.
   “World merchandise trade is expected to expand only marginally on a year-to-year basis despite a projected increase of 6 percent between the fourth quarter of 2001 and that of 2002,” says the study, which will be part of the forthcoming 2002 WTO annual report.
   A strong rebound in international trade is unlikely, according to WTO economists, because of “sober prospects” for information technology industries.
   “World trade is expected to recover from the first quarter of 2002 onwards, driven initially by the rebuilding of inventories,” the WTO said. The projected global exports expansion of 6 percent between the fourth quarter of 2001 and 2002 leads to an average annual growth projected at 1 percent for 2002.
   “For the second year in a row, growth in world trade will lag behind the expansion of global output,” the trade body said.
   World exports dipped 1.5 percent in volume in 2001 and contracted 4 percent in value to $6 trillion, according to the WTO. The 1.5 percent decline in export volume in 2001 followed a 12 percent increase in 2000.
   The 4 percent decline in export value in 2001 was “the largest annual decrease recorded since 1982,” the WTO said. All three major merchandise product groups – agricultural products, mining products and manufactures – suffered.
   The regions and countries with the strongest export decline in 2001 were those trading intensively in IT products – East Asia and the United States, the WTO said.
   In sharp contrast, regions and countries which had benefited from the sharp recovery of oil and gas prices in 1999-2000, such as transition economies and the Middle East, generally recorded strong import growth in 2001, it said.
   The complete report of the WTO will be published in June.