NRF: U.S. container import volumes to remain ‘sparse’ in 2016

Ports covered by the Global Port Tracker report handled 1.44 million TEUs in April, up 9.1 percent from March but down 4.6 percent from April 2015, according to the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.    Import cargo volumes at major United States container ports continued to slip in April 2016 compared with the previous year, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates. 
   Ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled a total of 1.44 million TEUs in April, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available, up 9.1 percent from March but down 4.6 percent from the same 2015 period.
   NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold noted, however, that comparisons with early 2015 volume levels are still imprecise due to the flood of backlogged cargo that arrived in March and April following the completion of a new contract between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union and employers represented by the Pacific Maritime Association. The new dockworker labor agreement brought an end to sever congestion issues at ports along the U.S. West Coast.
   “The unusual patterns seen last year in the aftermath of the West Coast ports slowdown are continuing to make valid year-over-year comparisons difficult,” said Gold. “Retailers are balancing imports with existing inventories but consumers can expect to see plenty of merchandise on the shelves for both back-to-school and the holidays.”
   The April volumes came in just under the 1.5 million TEUs forecast by the Global Port Tracker report and, as such, NRF and Hackett Associates have revised downward their projection for the rest of 2016.
   Looking forward to the remainder of the year, volumes in May are expected to reach 1.54 million TEUs, a 4.2 percent drop compared with the same month last year; June is also forecast at 1.54 million TEUs, a 1.9 percent year-over-year decline; July at 1.62 million TEUs, a 0.2 percent bump from last year; August at 1.63 million TEUs, a 3 percent decrease; September at 1.57 million TEUs, a 3.5 percent drop; and October at 1.61 million TEUs, a 3.4 percent year-over-year increase.
   Total volumes in the first half of 2016 are now expected to reach 8.9 million TEUs, down slightly from a previously projected 9 million TEUs but up 0.3 percent from the same 2015 period. Overall throughput in 2015 stood at 18.2 million TEUs, up 5.4 percent compared with the full year in 2014.
   “Our port models are projecting weak imports in volume terms, not to be confused with the dollar value,” said Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett. “Inventories remain very high, pointing to an overstocked situation that will depress the volume of imports in the coming peak season. Unless inventories drop through further increased consumer spending, import growth will remain sparse.”
   Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, covers the U.S. ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Houston.