DREWRY PREDICTS TANKER RECOVERY BY END OF 2002

DREWRY PREDICTS TANKER RECOVERY BY END OF 2002    The latest tanker market review from Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd. projects a credible “short-term” recovery “by the end of 2002.
   “The industry has, in recent times, displayed a willingness to scrap older and unprofitable tonnage. Thus, while the fleet surplus is set to rise, there is a perception that a counter-balance to weak periods exists within the freight market, with the older ships making money while they can and moving to the (scrapping) beaches in large numbers when they can’t,” London-based Drewry said.
   The Drewry report does not minimize hazards of'an over-inflated orderbook, noting that even'”the expected increase in scrapping levels will not be enough to offset the large number of vessels currently being built in the world’s shipyards.”
   However, “despite this expected growth in supply, Drewry expects the market to peak in 2004 before starting to soften again,” the report said. Better things are forecast, in particular, from the Panamax market, an expectation borne out by a recent increase in the number of Panamax vessels on order.
   Drewry predicts that in a slowly rising tanker market, the increasing surplus will prevent any sharp peaks in freight rates.
   As for tanker sizes, the report “points out a paradigm shift from the originally defined, 79,999 deadweight-ton Aframax to the current popularity for larger vessels, with almost 56 percent of the current fleet now at 106,000 dwt.
   The full report, “Annual Tanker Market Review and Forecast – 2002” is available from Drewry for $1,250 in print and PDF, or $1,150 for the print version or PDF version. See www.nakra@drewry.co.uk