Cloudy with a chance of piracy

Cloudy with a chance of piracy U.S. Navy combines climatology, intelligence to forecast pirate activity.

   There are about 30 naval vessels from various countries at any one time patrolling the waters of the Horn of Africa to protect merchant shipping. But the chances of successfully preventing or responding to pirate attacks in an area about the size of the continental United States are slim given the geographic reality.
   The U.S. Navy has added a weapon in its battle with pirates that might improve those chances.
   James Hansen, a scientist at the Naval Research Laboratory, has developed modeling software based on weather forecasting techniques designed to predict where pirates are most likely to strike. The Navy hopes to use the technology to better position its limited resources for rescues and other missions.
   The software does statistical analysis of multiple data inputs to determine the probability of pirate behavior. It correlates:
   ' Historical data about previous patterns of pirate attacks.
   ' Current intelligence about operational aspects such as tactics, speed, vessel range, skiff capabilities, base and sea locations, numbers of individuals involved in pirate activity, normal time of day for attacks, commercial shipping traffic and the location of navy ships.
   ' Environmental information like wind, waves and currents to narrow down an area where pirates might strike.
   The product overlays the intelligence on a map showing spatial and temporal conditions to help commanders visualize threats, Hansen said in a January presentation to the American Meteorological Society conference in Seattle.
   'Intelligence and meteorological impact are dynamically coupled. If the intel says the bases are building up, that gives you high intel risk. And if it's been blowing strong winds and big waves off the coast for two weeks, your meteorological/oceanographic risk is low. But as soon as those winds turn off, the meteorological/oceanographic risk is (high) and it's saying the pirates could be 2,000 miles off shore, when of course they can't (because it takes time to reach their hunting grounds). We're trying to account for that,' he said, according to a recording of his address on the organization's Web site.

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   The program, for example, can be used to analyze the most likely base where pirates came from or their hunting pattern based on the location of an attack, he said.
   Other types of data that can enhance the targeting come from sensors such as radar and aerial surveillance video, Hansen said.
   The analytic model, just as with weather forecasting, is subject to constantly changing variables that make definitive predictions difficult, he added.
   Its accuracy is enhanced by running tens of thousands of scenarios against the rules engine to mathematically calculate the probability of pirate action, according to Hansen.
   Using game theory, Hansen said he also plans to account for the fact that commercial vessel locations may be a function of reacting to the presence of pirates.
   The program is being tested in the field by the Naval Oceanographic Office to gain feedback from select users and could become operational later this summer to help U.S. and NATO forces in the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean interdict pirates and warn commercial vessels of increased pirate risks, Hansen said via e-mail.