NRF expects ‘healthy growth’ in retail sales for 2015

The National Retail Federation forecast an increase of 4.1 percent for in-store sales and up to 10 percent in non-store sales compared to 2014.    According to the latest economic forecast from the National Retail Federation, retail industry sales, which exclude automobiles, gas stations and restaurants, will increase 4.1 percent in 2015. This represents greater growth than in 2014, when sales increased 3.5 percent from the previous year, and would mark the largest annual growth since 2011, when retail sales increased 5.1 percent.
   NRF said it expects non-store retail sales to increase 7 to 10 percent in 2015.
   January retail sales increased 0.2 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month and 3.7 percent unadjusted compared to January of 2014. Holiday sales for 2014 were up 4 percent.
   The trade association added that a baseline growth of 2.7 and 3.2 percent in the economy as measured by GDP is expected in 2015. Growth in the labor market should average between 220,000-230,000 new jobs per month throughout 2015, with unemployment expected to drop to 5 percent by year’s end.
   NRF said of the predictions, “Gains in equities and housing have boosted net worth to record levels, helping consumers feel more confident about household spending.”
   “Already facing far fewer obstacles than this time last year in terms of growth opportunities, retailers are optimistic about the potential that exists for healthy growth in retail sales and consumer engagement in 2015,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “While our outlook for the year ahead is positive, we aren’t quite out of the woods; in order to see continued momentum we need a commitment from our leaders in Washington to pass legislation that will encourage investment, create jobs and set us on the path towards sustained, long-term economic growth.”
   NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz added, “The economy appears to finally have gained some real traction and after a somewhat turbulent 2014, we expect to see continued gains in economic activity in the year ahead. While Americans are benefiting from a pickup in wages and jobs and gains in the U.S. stock market, economic slack has been reduced.  
   “We still, however, have a ways to go in order to achieve sustainable economic growth,” cautioned Kleinhenz. “There are a few wild cards that the retailers will need to keep an eye on, like global economic growth, energy prices and even inflation.”
   NRF represents discount and department stores, home goods and specialty stores, Main Street merchants, grocers, wholesalers, chain restaurants and Internet retailers from the United States and more than 45 other countries.