Port Tracker bullish on U.S. container growth

   Import cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports is expected to increase 6.3 percent in August, compared with the same month in 2011, according to the latest monthly Global Port Tracker report released Monday by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
   The report forecasts container volume growth for 2012 of 4.8 percent over last year.
   “These numbers all show significant increases for the months when retailers will be bringing merchandise into the country for the crucial holiday season, and we’re also expecting an increase for the full year,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Actual sales will depend on how consumers react to employment levels and other indicators, but retailers are clearly stocking up and hoping for a stronger fall and winter than they saw last year.”
   U.S. ports followed by Global Port Tracker handled 1.4 million TEUs in June, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was up 10.7 percent from June 2011 and 4.7 percent from May.
   July was estimated at 1.4 million TEUs, up 2.6 percent from the same month last year. August is forecast at 1.4 million TEUs, up 6.3 percent; September at 1.5 million TEUs, up 7.3 percent; October at 1.5 million TEUs, up 13.2 percent; November at 1.3 million TEUs, up 2.4 percent; and December at 1.2 million TEUs, up 2.4 percent.
   The first half of 2012 totaled 7.6 million TEUs, up 3.8 percent from the same period last year. For the full year, 2012 is expected to total 15.9 million TEUs, up 4.8 percent from 2011.
   “Indicators are mixed, and analysts are getting nervous and expecting the U.S. consumer to retrench and reduce consumption,” Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said. “But we continue to believe that trade will not weaken as much as expected by others.”