Those are the findings contained in a draft of the first phase of a four-part study commissioned by MarAd on the impact of the canal widening, which will allow the passage of vessels triple the current size that can transit the narrow isthmus between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, Matsuda said.
The study is being conducted by Parsons Brinckerhoff, a large infrastructure-engineering firm based in New York.
A large portion of trade moves overland to those three regions through West Coast ports.
Many analysts, including some at the conference, believe that shipping patterns are largely set because retailers already moved to diversify their ports of entry in the middle of last decade following some major transportation disruptions.
Markets that that could see less of a shift than many anticipate include Tennessee, Kentucky and Michigan, the administrator said.
The MarAd study is designed to assess any changes in freight patterns, the ability of U.S. port and inland infrastructure to handle any increased traffic resulting from the arrival of larger vessels, and guide necessary policy and investment decisions to take advantage of the new trade capacity afforded by the Canal.
The agency's challenge, however, is that the Department of Transportation has lagged at developing a national freight policy and infrastructure needs already outpace declining revenues from fuel taxes and other user fees. Congress is 18-months overdue in passing a bill to reauthorize surface transportation programs to address the infrastructure gap and overhaul how the system is funded.
Matsuda said MarAd hoped to review and publish the study's first-phase results by the second quarter and to complete the entire study by the end of the year. The agency will convene several outreach sessions to get industry input on the implications of the Panama Canal expansion and plans to establish a web-based tool to allow comment and collaboration in putting together the final report. ' Eric Kulisch
