“The U.S. market needs substantial additional supplies of sugar, and a TRQ increase is the only way to provide adequate supplies at reasonable prices,” said the Sweetner Users Association in a letter to Michael Scuse, acting undersecretary for Farm and Foreign Agricultural Services at the USDA.
According to the association, the most recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates project a 9 percent ending stocks-to-use ratio for 2011-2012, “clearly deficient in light of market needs,” while quoted refined sugar prices continue to be 50 cents per pound or more. The association further cited research estimating that to achieve an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5 percent to 15.5 percent, additional imports of 728,000 to 961,000 short tons, raw value, will be necessary.
“USDA’s consideration of a TRQ increase must occur in the context of disappointing Mexican production and exports, as well as continued strong U.S. domestic demand,” the association said. “These factors strongly point to the need for additional supplies. In addition, USDA must recognize the likelihood of shortfalls in any announced TRQ quantity. Finally, there is no realistic scenario where there is any danger of forfeitures in 2011/12.”
To minimize shortfalls and permit transactions to be carried out efficiently, the association warned that “USDA should not ‘lowball’ its TRQ increase, but attempt to announce a quantity that will fulfill market needs during the balance of this fiscal year.”
