Containership surplus could persist for years
Information service AXS-Alphaliner said there are now 392 containerships with 1.1 million TEUs idle, and warns “this figure raises the specter of overcapacity hanging for years.”
Based on the current order book, modest scrapping of ships with aggregate capacity of 160,000 TEUs per year, and growth in containerized trade of 2.5 percent this year, AXS-Alphaliner said even with average annual growth of 15 percent in containerized trade in years 2010-2012, demand would not come into equilibrium with supply until the beginning of 2013.
If growth is only 10 percent, the equilibrium point is pushed out until early 2014.
AXS-Alphaliner says “a rebound of Chinese exports after the Lunar New Year failed to materialize,” and said Chinese exports in the first quarter of 2009 are expected to be 15 percent to 20 percent lower than in the first quarter of 2008.
On Monday, COSCO Pacific said its terminals in China handled 3.1 million TEUs in January, 4.7 percent fewer containers at its Chinese terminals in January 2008.
Worldwide, COSCO Pacific, which also has terminals in Singapore, Antwerp and the Suez Canal, handled 3.2 million TEUs, 5 percent fewer than in 2008.
Alphaliner said the percentage of the world fleet idle is “way above the 3.2 percent recorded in March 2002 and even larger than the 5 percent or so reached in 1986 when the whole fleet of U.S. Lines was frozen” due to the bankruptcy of what at the time was a leading container carrier.
Containership surplus could persist for years
