2009 retail ports forecast up slightly

2009 retail ports forecast up slightly    Import cargo volume at the nation's major retail container ports is now expected to total 12.5 million TEUs for 2009, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and IHS Global Insight.
   The number is significantly below last year's total but higher than the 12.3 million TEUs forecast a month ago.
   'We're starting to see a pattern where import levels are still below last year, but they're not as far below as they were just a few months ago,' said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. 'This matches up with other economic indicators that show the recession may be coming to an end.'
   The 12.5 million TEUs now forecast for 2009 would be a 17.7 percent drop from last year's 15.2 million TEUs, and the lowest since the 12.47 million TEU seen in 2003. The number was revised upward to reflect higher projected imports for each of the remaining months of the year as retailers anticipate that economic conditions will begin to ease, NRF and IHS Global Insight said.

Gold

   U.S. ports surveyed handled 1.1 million TEUs in July, down 17 percent from July 2008, marking the 25th consecutive month to see year-over-year decline.
   Volume and year-over-year declines forecasts for the rest of the year are:
   ' August, 1.13 million TEUs, down 17 percent.
   ' September, 1.11 million TEUs, down 18 percent.
   ' October, traditionally the peak month of the year, 1.14 million TEUs, down 17 percent.
   ' November, 1.07 million TEUs, down 13 percent.
   ' December, 1.04 million TEUs, down 2 percent.
   The 2 percent decline projected for December would be the first single-digit decline of the year and would compare with drops ranging from 15 percent to 32 percent. But volume is forecast to drop by 18 percent in January 2010, to 1.01 million TEUs.

Bingham

   'Import container traffic is projected to be weak through January because of the slow pace of recovery from the recession and the slow period that follows the holiday season,' said Paul Bingham, IHS Global Insight economist. 'We are seeing the annual cycle of month-to-month growth that will peak in October, but volume is still below last year's levels.'
   All U.S. ports covered by Port Tracker — Los Angeles-Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York-New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast — are rated 'low' for congestion, the same as last month.