Port Tracker lowers forecast for U.S. container imports

Port Tracker lowers forecast for U.S. container imports U.S. container imports are now expected to be down 6 percent in 2008, according to the latest Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Global Insight.
   Inbound volume at the country’s major container ports is forecast to total 15.5 million TEUs, down from 16.5 million TEUs in 2007. Port Tracker previously estimated import traffic would slide 4 percent to 15.8 million TEUs for the year.
   The report said the trend for container imports being down each month would hold for the entire year as anticipated increases for October and December are no longer expected to materialize.
   'Retailers are tightening up their inventories to reflect what they expect to be able to sell during the holiday season,' said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. 'We still expect to see an increase in sales this year, but the economy is clearly challenging and our industry is trying to hit the balance point between supply and demand as closely as they can.'
   For July, the latest month for which actual numbers are available, inbound box volume at the U.S. ports surveyed by Port Tracker — Los Angeles-Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma, New York-New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, Savannah, and Houston — was down 8.3 percent year on year at 1.32 million TEUs. August was estimated at 1.38 million TEUs, a drop of 5.8 percent from a year ago.
   Port Tracker’s monthly forecasts for the remainder of 2008 are:
   ' September, 1.35 million TEUs, down 8.6 percent.
   ' October, 1.4 million TEUs, down 2.9 percent.
   ' November, 1.3 million TEUs, down 5.3 percent.
   ' December, 1.27 million TEUs, down 0.4 percent.
   If these figures hold true, October will be the peak month of 2008, though it will fall short of the 1.48 million TEUs peak for 2007 set last September.
   Meanwhile, Port Tracker’s congestion rating for the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach has been raised to medium due to concerns over new Clean Trucks Program regulations requiring trucking companies to obtain a special concession license beginning Oct. 1.
   'Uncertainty about the initial implementation of the Clean Trucks Program raises concerns about potential truck capacity for these ports,' said Paul Bingham, Global Insight’s managing director of world trade and transportation markets. 'There is some risk for port performance associated with this program, but the ports say they have received letters of intent from several trucking companies and say they believe operations can go forward without interruption.'
   All other ports covered by Port Tracker are rated 'low' for congestion, the same as last month.