Port Tracker counts on Santa

Port Tracker counts on Santa    The latest Global Port Tracker report forecasts import cargo volume at the ports that handle most containers with retail goods will remain below last year's levels for the remainder of the summer before seeing year-over-year gains again this fall as retailers begin to stock up for the holiday season.
   'Cargo numbers have been down this summer but that's a reflection of last year's unusual shipping patterns more than the economy,' said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy for the National Retail Federation. 'The economy continues to face challenges, but job growth has been steady and retailers have been adding jobs themselves as sales improve. Cargo figures for this fall clearly show that retailers are expecting a healthy holiday season.'
   U.S. ports followed by Global Port Tracker handled 1.25 million TEUs in June, the latest month for which numbers are available. That was down 5 percent from June 2010.

Gold

   The Port Tracker report, prepared by NRF and Hackett Associates, said June's volume broke an 18-month streak of year-over-year improvement dating to December 2009. It’s forecast for coming months is as follows:
   ' July, 1.3 million TEUs, down 5.7 percent from July 2010.
   ' August, 1.4 million TEUs, down 1.6 percent.
   ' September, 1.48 million TEUs, up 10.4 percent.
   ' October 1.46 million TEUs, up 8 percent.
   ' November, 1.31 million TEUs, up 6.2 percent
   ' December, 1.18 million TEUs, up 3 percent.

Hackett

   The report said volumes this summer do not indicate an economic downturn, but a “skewed comparison against higher-than-normal numbers last summer, when fears of shortages in shipping capacity caused many retailers to bring holiday merchandise into the country earlier than usual. Actual retail sales have seen 12 straight months of growth.”
   While cargo volume is expected to increase through this fall's holiday shipping cycle, Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said a number of key economic indicators are raising concerns about future cargo growth.
   'Industrial production in China is weak, bulk commodity imports are declining, and ports are beginning to report reduced export volumes,' Hackett said. 'In the U.S., we have lower private consumption, lower government expenditure and lower indices like the purchasing managers' index. This is cause for concern because it could lead to lower growth of trade volumes.
   Global Port Tracker covers the U.S. ports of Los Angeles-Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York-New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast.