Why Your Trucking Lead Times are Getting Longer

Dive deep into FreightWaves SONAR data as we uncover surprising trends in tender lead times. Discover why lead times are extending, even during typical seasonal lulls, and what this ‘orderly tightness’ means for the freight market. We’ll break down the data for markets like St. Louis and Atlanta, offering crucial insights for shippers and brokers.

Truckload tender lead times have climbed to 3.71 days nationally — the highest level in at least three years — according to FreightWaves Sonar data reviewed on FreightWaves Today. The figure marks a notable rise from roughly 3.5 days a year ago and lows of around 3.25 days seen in 2023 and 2024, and it is holding elevated even during August, a period that historically sees lead times fall.

Craig Fuller, reviewing the Sonar Truckload Lead Time Index, said the index measures how far in advance a tender is submitted before a load’s scheduled pickup. Fuller attributed the sustained rise to three converging forces: shippers deploying more sophisticated supply chain forecasting tools, a shift back toward contract freight that carries longer natural lead times, and inventory holders who are not in a rush and are tendering loads earlier to secure capacity ahead of a tightening market.

The national average masks sharp regional variation. West Texas markets — covering Amarillo, Lubbock, Odessa and Abilene — showed a tender lead time of 7.53 days, driven largely by oil patch logistics. St. Louis came in at 3.42 days, just below the national average, which Fuller noted is consistent with that market’s outsized tender rejection rate of 27.6%, compared with a national average of roughly 13.5%. Markets with high rejection rates compress lead times because freight gets re-tendered repeatedly as carriers decline loads.

“One is in many cases sort of a precursor of the other. Where it gets interesting is when tender rejections, volumes, spot rates and lead times don’t always align, and I think that that’s a really, really cool thing to do to use these lead times to really give more context to what you’re looking at,” said Fuller.

Atlanta illustrated that dynamic in detail. Over the most recent two-week period, outbound volumes from Atlanta rose 3.5% while tender rejections climbed only 2% — in part because lead times in that market were up 2.4%. Julie Van de Kamp explained that extra lead time gives carriers room to reposition equipment, reducing the urgency that drives rejection spikes. “Carriers are saying, I have an extra day to deal with it. I can deadhead trucks into that market,” Van de Kamp said.

Despite volumes rising, spot rates out of Atlanta have not increased. Fuller and Van de Kamp characterized the broader truckload environment as unusually measured, with contract rates continuing to move higher while spot rates remain near record levels without spiking. Van de Kamp called it an “orderly tightness” and drew a comparison to the 2009–2014 upcycle, which lasted five years and produced roughly 3% quarterly rate growth — slow by historical standards but durable and predictable for both carriers running assets and shippers managing budgets.

For brokers and shippers, Fuller highlighted Sonar’s Coverage Guide tool as a practical application of lead time data. Markets flagged as currently tight and tightening — such as outbound New Jersey — warrant immediate tendering, while markets showing current tightness but a loosening trend, including outbound New York, Pennsylvania and Illinois, may allow shippers to wait, particularly if loads are likely to move at spot rather than contract rates. Fuller warned that brokers who push difficult, tightening-market loads to later in the day face compounding costs: “If you’re going to lose a little bit of money on it in the beginning of the day, you’re going to lose a lot of money on it at the end of the day.”

• National truckload tender lead times rose to 3.71 days, up from lows of 3.25 days in 2023–2024, with the increase holding even during the typically soft August period.
• St. Louis tender rejections of 27.6% — double the 13.5% national average — are compressing local lead times, while West Texas oil patch markets are running at 7.53 days.
• Atlanta volumes are up 3.5% but spot rates have not risen, as shippers extend lead times by 2.4% to manage rejections and control costs in an orderly market.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.