5 Freight Markets: Why Spot Rates Are Sending Mixed Signals

Spot rates are still elevated, but the freight market story changes fast once you drill into individual markets. This SONAR update breaks down national tender rejections, tender volumes and spot rates, then digs into 5 key markets: Cincinnati, Detroit, Joliet, Miami and Houston. The big takeaway: rates alone can fool you. In some markets, stronger spot rates signal tightening capacity. In others, they do not. Market context matters if you’re pricing freight, planning capacity or reading where demand is actually headed.

Spot rates are holding firm even as tender volumes and rejection rates pull back, according to a Sept. 11 SONAR market update — but that national picture obscures wide swings at the metro level, with some markets tightening while others soften rapidly.

Nationally, the SONAR Truckload Rejection Index (STRI) sits at 13.22%, down 9% week over week and roughly 3.2% month over month. The Tender Volume Index (STVI) fell 10% both week over week and month over month. Despite those contractions, spot rates dipped briefly in late August around the Labor Day holiday before resuming their climb, signaling that carriers retain pricing leverage even as demand edges lower.

“Even with volumes and rejections falling a bit, spot rates are remaining elevated,” said Julie Van de Kamp. “Carriers still have some negotiation power in the market to continue to drive those spot rates up, but it is absolutely nuanced market by market throughout the country.”

Cincinnati and Detroit posted the steepest week-over-week spot rate gains among the five markets examined. Cincinnati showed a clean, correlated surge: spot rates up 20%, rejections up 15%, volumes up 7%, and a SONAR Haul Index reading of 25.96, confirming it as a solid headhaul market. Detroit’s 13% spot rate increase told a murkier story — rejection rates fell 14%, volume edged up only 2%, and the haul index turned negative at 7.26, suggesting the rate strength is not capacity-driven.

“Rate strength doesn’t look to be capacity driven here,” Van de Kamp said of Detroit. “There is some nuance there.”

On the declining side, Joliet was the starkest example of demand-led softening: spot rates dropped 15% week over week, rejections fell 12%, and volume slid 14%. Even though the market’s haul index remained positive at 34 — reflecting the structural outbound freight dominance of the broader Chicago area — Van de Kamp noted the retreat is “more than just a capacity story” and that demand is actively pulling back.

Miami and Houston offered the least ambiguous readings. Miami’s spot rates fell 24% week over week, with rejections down 9.5% and volume down 17.8%, consistent with its chronic backhaul status reflected in a haul index of -34.5. Houston mirrored that softness across every metric: spot rates off 15.4%, rejections down 25%, volume down 13%, and a haul index of -7.41 — “really unambiguous, just a soft market there right now,” Van de Kamp said.

The divergence across markets underscores the risk of relying solely on national averages. For brokers and shippers pricing freight or building carrier relationships, metro-level haul index data — which measures the balance of inbound versus outbound volume — can explain why rates move in directions that headline rejection and volume figures alone do not predict.

• National spot rates remain elevated despite STRI falling 9% week over week to 13.22% and STVI dropping 10%, giving carriers continued pricing leverage.
• Cincinnati is the clearest tightening market, with spot rates up 20%, rejections up 15%, and volumes up 7% week over week; Detroit’s 13% rate gain is complicated by falling rejections and a negative haul index.
• Miami and Houston show unambiguous softness, with spot rates down 24% and 15.4% respectively, alongside falling rejections and volumes pointing to weakening demand rather than loose capacity alone.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.