Trucking Capacity Crisis: Rejections Up 4x on Same Volume

The freight market is experiencing an unprecedented capacity crisis, with carriers rejecting loads at four times the normal rate despite stable volumes. This isn’t a typical demand-driven cycle; instead, capacity is exiting the market faster than new trucks can enter, driven by escalating costs, driver shortages, and regulatory hurdles. Discover why the market will remain tight and what shippers and brokers should be watching.

Tender rejection rates have surged to roughly 14% — about three times their 2023 levels — while truckload volumes over the past three years are up only 9%, according to a Tuesday Sonar market update by Julie Van de Kamp. The divergence means carriers are rejecting nearly four times as many loads on roughly the same amount of freight, a dynamic that signals a structural supply problem rather than a demand-driven cycle.

“The price signal is there, but capacity response isn’t,” Van de Kamp said. Total for-hire tractors fell approximately 51,000 in August alone, and new fleet tractor counts — which peaked at about 47,000 in mid-2022 — have been declining rather than recovering despite a full year of elevated rejections.

“Carriers are rejecting nearly four times as many loads on roughly the same volume. In a normal cycle, that gap closes as new trucks enter and rejections fall again, but it hasn’t closed.”

Net carrier authority additions have turned positive in 2026 and hit a five-year high above 2,000 per week in late August and September, but Van de Kamp cautioned against reading those figures as evidence of real capacity growth. In the last capacity boom, authorities rose 51% while actual tractor counts rose only 12%. She also attributed much of the 2026 spike to noise around the FMCSA’s new MOTIS system, which paused deactivations and cleared application backlogs. Estimated new authority grants actually ran about 17% below first-quarter levels, and only about two in three new interstate registrants purchased liability insurance — compared with nine in ten during the 2019 cycle.

Driver availability is a compounding constraint. More than 202,000 CDL holders are sidelined for drug and alcohol violations, the non-domiciled CDL rule affects more than 194,000 drivers over time, and English proficiency enforcement is removing roughly 2,700 drivers from service each month. Schneider specifically described the market as driver-constrained in its most recent earnings, while Knight-Swift and Werner said driver availability is limiting fleet growth, shifting their focus to yield and utilization instead.

Cost pressures are also blocking new entrants. Insurance premiums rose about 4% in 2025 and another 4% to 6% in early 2026 even as crash rates decline, driven by liability and litigation exposure. Diesel costs continue to strain small carrier cash flow. About 10% of carrier trucks are parked, Van de Kamp noted, but those units can only return to service if compliant drivers are found — an outlet she does not currently see.

Van de Kamp said she expects the market to remain tight at least through early 2027, and potentially considerably longer, even without a demand spike. For shippers and brokers, she recommended ignoring net authority headlines and instead tracking tractor counts, fleets reporting miles, and the gap between tender rejections and tender volumes as the leading indicator of any eventual capacity turn.

• Tender rejections are near 14% — roughly 3x their 2023 levels — while truckload volume is up just 9% over three years, with carriers rejecting nearly 4x as many loads on similar freight.
• Net carrier authority additions hit a 5-year high above 2,000 per week, but actual tractor counts fell ~51,000 in August; in the last boom, authorities rose 51% while tractors rose only 12%.
• Over 202,000 CDL holders are sidelined for drug/alcohol violations and 2,700 more are removed monthly for English proficiency, with insurance costs up 4–6% in early 2026, blocking new capacity entry.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.