Freight Market Alert: Why October’s Tender Rejections Hit 14% Unexpectedly

The SONAR Truckload Rejection Index is skyrocketing, hitting an unexpected 14% in October – a significant development outside normal seasonal patterns. This isn’t driven by a demand spike, but rather by persistent market imbalance and insufficient supply across the country. Key regions like Los Angeles, Harrisburg, and Atlanta are showing unusual disruptive activity, with spot rates rising in critical areas. Discover where the tightening is happening and what it means for capacity heading into peak season.

The SONAR Tender Rejection Index climbed to 14.17% this week — an unusual mid-October spike that Zach Strickland, who presented the data in a SONAR Market Update, called a significant and unexpected development. What makes the move notable is what is not behind it: the SONAR Tender Volume Index shows no demand-side surge, meaning the tightening is being driven entirely by a supply shortfall.

“The only explanation is that we still have continued market imbalance,” Strickland said. “Supply is still not sufficient to cover demand in terms of truckload capacity.”

Strickland noted that mid-October is typically a brief breathing period before the holiday rush, making the breadth of the current disruption all the more striking. The SONAR Weighted Rejection Index is flashing elevated readings across a wide swath of the country simultaneously — including Knoxville, Harrisburg, Memphis, Atlanta, Green Bay, Des Moines, Los Angeles, Ontario (Calif.), and El Paso. Distribution-center-heavy markets such as Columbus, Harrisburg, and Atlanta are particularly notable because those hubs usually absorb inbound capacity from westbound lanes, not repel it.

“To see this as broad and stretched across the country is something that is worth noting,” Strickland said. “The weighted rejection index jumping up in all these places all at once is weird because a lot of that freight ends in those markets.”

Los Angeles and Ontario are receiving special attention. Record import volumes moved through the Port of Los Angeles in September, Strickland noted, and he described the maritime peak this year as a “prolonged plateau” rather than a traditional spike. Lean retailer inventories — the product of just-in-time ordering strategies — are now triggering a broad replenishment push that is stretching truckload capacity from the West Coast eastward. Los Angeles van rejection rates are up 1.87 percentage points week over week, with spot rates running well above contract and 38% of the market’s top 50 lanes showing spot-market tightening signals.

Spot rates have not yet responded to the rejection surge, but Strickland said he expects the National Truckload Index, the Regional Truckload Index, and possibly the Flatbed Truckload Index to move higher within the coming week. Tender lead times are running 3.5 to 4 days, while spot freight is being booked a day or less out — a lag that explains why the rate indexes have not yet caught up to the tightening signals. On the loosening side, Houston is showing the strongest softening signals in the van market, partially offsetting the national picture.

In the refrigerated segment, Milwaukee is posting the tightest conditions among major reefer markets, while Stockton, Calif., is showing the softest signal. Strickland cautioned that despite lower overall demand, the market remains volatile heading into the holiday season. “This market is still very unstable and you really can’t fall asleep on it just yet,” he said.

• SONAR Tender Rejection Index hit 14.17% in mid-October with no demand-side spike, signaling a pure capacity shortfall
• Los Angeles van rejections rose 1.87 percentage points week over week, with spot rates well above contract on 38% of top 50 lanes
• Spot rate indexes (NTI, RTI, FTI) have not yet reacted but are expected to move higher within the coming week as the tightening works through the market

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.