The latest SONAR data shows truckload rejections at 12.8%, double last year’s rate, yet the market feels unexpectedly soft. We break down why the usual peak season momentum is missing and what that means for freight rates, volumes, and capacity as we head into Thanksgiving and year-end. Plus, a look at how a strong El Niño could disrupt refrigerated freight this winter.
Truckload tender rejections are holding near 12.8% — roughly double the 6% recorded at the same point last year — but the market is showing little of the tightening momentum typically expected ahead of peak season, according to FreightWaves data analysts Julie Van de Kamp and Craig Fuller. The flatness is raising questions about whether the freight market can sustain a meaningful holiday surge and what it signals for 2027 contract rates.
The overall tender rejection index has barely moved in recent weeks, slipping only about 1 percentage point over the last 20 days. “I would like to see a little bit more heat, a little bit more pressure — that would tell us that this market is going to be strong in ’27,” Van de Kamp said. “We’re not seeing it yet.”
On the demand side, there are some early encouraging signs. November’s Outbound Tender Volume Index is averaging 11,434, up 12% from November last year and up roughly 3% from October, Fuller noted — the first meaningful demand build the market has seen heading into the holidays.
“We are seeing 12% more demand this year than last November, and we’re up about 3% from October. So we’re seeing demand pick up.” — Craig Fuller
Refrigerated is the standout segment. Reefer tender rejections are running at 21%, compared with just 12.6% at the same time last year, driven by Thanksgiving-related food shipments and tightening capacity. Van de Kamp pointed to a super El Niño — which some forecasters are calling the strongest in over 100 years — as a potential additional pressure on reefer capacity this winter, particularly for protect-from-freeze freight covering food products and electronics.
Spot rate data by mode underscores the divergence: refrigerated rates broke out sharply in July and have remained elevated, flatbed rates are holding at a premium supported by AI data center construction and industrial activity, while dry van rates have largely flattened. C.H. Robinson’s 2026 flatbed cost-per-mile forecast stands at 28% year over year, with another 10% projected for 2027, Fuller said, citing the carrier’s earnings commentary.
Geographically, the Pacific Northwest is beginning to tighten as apple, potato, and Christmas tree harvests ramp up — a seasonal pattern that Van de Kamp described as a market that is “pretty much dead 9 months out of the year” before flipping sharply. C.H. Robinson also noted in its earnings that early November typically brings some rate relief before Thanksgiving, but that this year the relief may be more limited than usual.
Both analysts said the next two weeks around Thanksgiving will be the clearest test of whether the market has enough momentum to set up a tighter environment heading into 2026 contract season, with winter weather adding an additional wildcard for capacity, especially in refrigerated.
- Truckload tender rejections sit at 12.8%, double last year’s 6% but down only ~1 point over the past 20 days, signaling stalled momentum.
- Refrigerated tender rejections hit 21% versus 12.6% a year ago, with a super El Niño forecast adding further risk to reefer capacity this winter.
- November STVI volumes are up 12% year over year and 3% from October, marking the first meaningful demand build heading into the holiday season.
This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.
