$100B Trade Gap: China vs. US Data Exposed

A staggering $100 billion discrepancy exists between China’s reported exports and the US’s recorded imports. Michael Kanko, CEO of ImportGenius.com, explains what this trade data delta signifies for the global supply chain. He details how granular shipping records are used for everything from sourcing new components to ensuring compliance with international sanctions, and why transparency in air cargo data is the next big battle for US manufacturers.

ImportGenius has identified a more than $100 billion gap between what China reported shipping to the United States last year and what U.S. records show as received — a discrepancy that highlights the limitations of relying on government trade statistics alone and the growing role of bill-of-lading data in supply chain intelligence.

The finding emerged when ImportGenius normalized its shipment-level data into TEUs — the standard 20-foot equivalent unit used in global container trade — and cross-referenced that count against U.S. Census dollar values to derive a value-per-container figure. Comparing that metric to China’s own TEU-normalized figures produced what the company described as a major and “mystifying” difference. Possible explanations include transshipment through third countries such as Vietnam, incorrectly recorded shipment values, and potential incentives tied to tariff optimization.

“Some of the incentive in this might simply be related to tariff and optimizing for tariff bills,” said Michael Kanko of ImportGenius.

Beyond the macro discrepancy, Kanko said the platform’s users are increasingly tapping shipment records — which capture details down to the markings on individual boxes, container contents, shipper and consignee identities, and notified parties — for sourcing and compliance purposes. With sanctions at historically high levels due to ongoing conflicts, companies are using trade data to vet new customers. Kanko offered a concrete example: confirming whether an aviation parts buyer in Turkey had transacted with Russia within the past 30 days. Law enforcement and brand-protection teams, including major footwear manufacturers tracking counterfeit sneakers from Asia, are also users.

On near-term freight volumes, Kanko said he expects international ocean shipping activity to continue, and possibly intensify, through at least the midterm elections, citing persistent policy uncertainty as the primary driver. He also noted rising shipment activity out of Vietnam, Mexico, and other Asian and South American origins. ImportGenius recently gained access to Mexican shipment-level trade data, which also provides visibility into transborder land crossings between Mexico and the United States.

An emerging use case is domestic lead generation: U.S. manufacturers are now using the platform to identify importers of products similar to what they produce — essentially building prospect lists at a moment when the pricing dynamic has shifted in their favor relative to Chinese competitors. Kanko said this trend is notably stronger than when the company was founded nearly 20 years ago.

The company is also pushing for legislative change on air cargo transparency. Nearly half of U.S. imports by value arrive by air, yet no public manifest data exists for those shipments — a gap Kanko attributed to a law rooted in maritime trade that has not kept pace with air cargo’s growth since the 1970s. ImportGenius has spent three years advocating for the Manifest Modernization Act, which has companion bills in both the House and Senate and support from the Ways and Means Committee, the Senate Finance Committee, and the House China Select Committee. Kanko testified before the Ways and Means Committee and said the bill has drawn bipartisan co-sponsors. The company is also exploring whether the legislation could be attached to the annual defense reauthorization bill before year’s end.

• ImportGenius found a $100B-plus gap between China’s reported exports and U.S. import records, with tariff optimization cited as one possible explanation.
• Nearly half of U.S. imports by value arrive by air but carry no public manifest data; the bipartisan Manifest Modernization Act aims to close that blind spot.
• U.S. manufacturers are increasingly using shipment-level trade data for lead generation as the pricing dynamic shifts away from Chinese suppliers.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.