Analysts say boxship orders “daunting”
Investment bank Dresdner Kleinwort said orders for new container ships to be delivered in 2009 and 2010 are “daunting.”“There has been further vessel ordering in 2007, particularly for 2010 delivery, such that global capacity growth will now be 12.3 percent in 2007, 12.9 percent in 2008, 11.0 percent in 2009 and a staggering 14.0 percent in 2010,” reads an investment note published by the securities firm, which is based in London and Frankfurt.
And more ships are being ordered for even further in the future.
Earlier this week, Seaspan Corp. of Vancouver signed a contract with Hyundai Heavy Industries to build eight 13,100-TEU containerships to be delivered in 2011. The ships will be chartered to COSCO.
The prior week, Israel’s Zim Line said it has ordered eight 12,600-TEU ships from an undisclosed yard to be delivered in 2012.
Even before those deals were announced, the research firm AXS Marine-Alphaliner noted this year almost 2.7 million TEUs of orders have been recorded, pushing the cellular ship order book to a new historical high of 6.48 million TEUs, representing 61.7 percent of the existing fleet as of Sept. 1.
AXS said, “The last time that the order book reached 60 percent of the existing fleet was in June 2005.”
Dresdner Kleinwort said capacity is being moved to the strong Asia/Europe route because of weakness in the transatlantic and transpacific trades.
“Looking ahead to 2008, the transpacific trade will need to see an acceleration in volume growth to absorb the capacity increase, while Asia/Europe will need to maintain the current growth rate,” said the bank’s team of shipping analysts. “A lack of acceleration in U.S. imports or slowdown in European imports would lead to a deterioration in the fragile supply/demand balance.”
