Container rates on the benchmark Asia to U.S. trade lanes are rising, amid surprisingly spry consumer demand following an early peak shipping season.
That demand comes as inflationary pressures push up the cost of retail goods and industrial products, and an array of supply chain and geopolitical factors continue to weigh on global ocean shipping.
In the Middle East, the stalemate over control of the Strait of Hormuz shows no sign of abating. As the U.S.-Iran war stretches into its sixth month, President Donald Trump’s command-by-social-media-post has failed to put together the framework of a reasonable exit strategy, leaving Tehran in a position to dictate terms. Iranian leadership this week said they would wait out the remaining two-plus years of Trump’s administration, if necessary.
Iran’s escalating demands now include a ban on U.S. vessels, transit fees and war reparations. But that hasn’t deterred the global liners CMA CGM, Maersk (OTC: AMKBY) and Mediterranean Shipping Co., from expanding or returning to the Red Sea, despite renewed attacks there.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations security monitor reported two incidents in the region on Tuesday. A cargo vessel off the coast of Yemen in the southern Red Sea was hit by an unknown projectile, while a container ship was targeted by military forces in the Gulf of Oman. There were no further details.
Asia-U.S. West Coast container rates increased 11% to $6,826 per forty foot equivalent (FEU) in the latest Freightos Baltic Index. Asia-U.S. East Coast prices increased 1% to $9,144 per FEU, a new high for the year.
Trans-Pacific rates that had been moving in tandem with Asia-Europe prices since the early peak season start in late May have lately diverged.
“East Coast rates which had been about stable since hitting the $9,000/FEU mark in early July are up to a new high of $9,400/FEU so far this week,” said analyst Judah Levine, chief analyst for Freightos (NASDAQ: CRGO), a contributor to SONAR data. “West Coast prices – which fell through most of July, possibly due more to capacity additions than volume drops in retrospect – have climbed $1,300/FEU since the start of the month to about $7,400/FEU so far this week, though rates are $200/FEU below their July high.”
The surprise surge led the National Retail Federation to revise its outlook for a significant import drop in August and into September, to more even, elevated demand through September.
“This shift may reflect some shippers – who had been frontloading ahead of the July tariff deadline – extending their ordering now that a sharp duty hike did not materialize,” Levine said. “Others who may have been cautious with their peak season ordering due to so much economic uncertainty, may be increasing shipments as consumers continue to show resilience despite elevated rates of inflation.”
Read more articles by Stuart Chirls here.
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