Container forecast flat in January/February

   Import cargo volume at the United States’ major retail container ports should be nearly flat during January, compared with the same month in 2011, but significant year-over-year increases are expected this spring, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released last week by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
   “We’re headed into the slow season for cargo shipments, but forecasts indicate that retailers will be stocking up this spring in anticipation of a moderate recovery as the year progresses,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Cargo volume doesn’t translate directly into sales volume, but when retailers import more it’s because they expect to sell more.”
   U.S. ports followed by Global Port Tracker handled 1.3 million TEUs in November, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was up 1.2 percent from November 2010.
   December was estimated at 1.2 million TEUs, up 5.9 percent year-on-year. January 2012 is forecast at 1.2 million TEUs, 0.1 percent from January 2011. February, historically the slowest month of the year, is forecast at 1.1 million TEUs, down 3.3 percent from a year ago. March is forecast at 1.2 million TEUs, up 10.5 percent from last year; April at 1.3 million TEUs, up 3.8 percent; and May at 1.3 million TEUs, up 0.9 percent.
   Total volume in 2011 at ports covered by Port Tracker was estimated at 14.9 million TEUs, up 0.7 percent from 2010’s 14.8 million TEUs.
   “Continuing uncertainty and the run-up to the elections raise a cloud, as does the pressure on declining incomes as firms hire at lower rates,” Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said. “Nevertheless, the consumer managed to increase savings during most of 2011 and now has a tidy safety net from which to increase consumption as the risk of unemployment recedes. All of these indicators suggest that we are not heading for another recession, but rather for a sustained level of low growth.”
   Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by the consulting firm Hackett Associates, covers the U.S. ports of Long Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; the East Coast’s New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah; and Houston in the Gulf.