Cuba’s potential will hinge on next U.S. president, says lawyer

Cuba’s potential will hinge on next U.S. president, says lawyer    Cuba’s massive potential as a Caribbean transshipment hub will depend just as much on who is the next U.S. president as it will on potential reform of the communist state post-Fidel Castro, said Michael Roberts, a partner in the Washington office of law firm Venable LLP.
   U.S. law (Helms-Burton) prohibits opening relations with Cuba until a democratic government is in place, but Roberts told Shippers’ NewsWire that a U.S. presidential victory for Barack Obama would lead to dramatic changes in the embargo policy. He is less hopeful of change in the event of victory for either John McCain or Hillary Clinton.
   “It’s highly unlikely that there will be a meaningful change in U.S. policy before the end of this current administration,” said Roberts, who while working for Crowley Maritime from 1991 until early 2000, was responsible for obtaining the first licenses for commercial shipping from the United States to Cuba. He also worked on helping pass the 1996 Maritime Security Act, the Coast Guard Authorization Act and the 1998 Ocean Shipping Reform Act.
   The end of 81-year old Fidel Castro’s near 50-year reign of the communist Caribbean country has sparked hope of reforms that could lead to a thawing of U.S.-Cuba relations. On Sunday Castro’s younger brother Raul, 76, was named president by Cuba’s National Assembly.
   “People are so used to false starts on Cuba when nothing really changes. Its not going to happen overnight but this is a very important step in the transition towards change in Cuba that will eventually produce a change in our policy,” Roberts said.
   One of Raul’s first acts as Cuban president was to appoint hard-line communist Jose Ramon Machado Ventura, 77, as his deputy, overlooking younger reformers such as Carlos Lage, 56, a move that some have viewed as an indication that the younger brother won’t stray too far from Fidel’s vision.
   However, Roberts thinks that Raul and Cuba’s other top-tier leaders understand that a move to greater economic freedom is essential.
   “There is just a little bit short of a consensus among all the people I talk to in Cuba and here that China-style reform will be the approach. The official government line is different, but when you get a layer beyond that I think people really do see that as the direction they’re heading.
   “There clearly have been differences between the brothers in terms of their view of how the economy should operate and the changes that need to be made internally. Lots of people, particularly those who have been involved in international diplomatic activities, have been tasked with defending the system in Cuba and so they undoubtedly have statements in their background staunchly defending communism. But that doesn’t mean in my opinion that they’re necessarily opposed to a transition towards free market.”
   According to Roberts, what happened in the National Assembly highlights the tricky balancing act facing Raul and his government.
   “They have to maintain power. They cannot be perceived as moving too quickly. By and large they are not educated about how competitive markets work and they will move slowly. I think they are not looking for rapid change that will result in foreign interests buying up all of Cuba.
   One potential foreign investor that has already spotted Cuba’s potential is Dubai Ports World, owned by the emirate of Dubai, which recently signed an agreement in principle to build a new container terminal in Mariel that would cost an estimated $250 million.
   “There are foreign investment rules now in Cuba that allow those kinds of deals to get done, but I think the commercial side of it has been a challenge. I don’t think the Cuban government realizes too clearly what it takes to attract capital so they’ve not been very successful in doing the kinds of deals they’ll need to do.”
   The U.S. lawyer said the local population offers the likes of DP World a very cheap and skilled pool of labor.
   “What you have is an educated and motivated work force currently living off $15 to $30 a month salary and I’m sure they could do the job very effectively in so many different sectors but certainly in shipping.
   “There are tremendous opportunities that are going to materialize as the transition moves forward. It is moving forward in Cuba and I think that will pull along change in the United States. What will happen then will be remarkable.
   “I mean you have a country the size of the state of Ohio in terms of geography and population that essentially has 50 years of deferred capital expenditures. They have incredible needs in terms of infrastructure development, not just transportation but plants and equipment, you name it. There will be huge opportunities in almost every sector.”
   The European Commission on Monday said it is willing to engage in “a constructive political dialogue” with Raul Castro.
   “The EC stands ready to continue working with the Cuban government, in coordination with our European Union partners, to improve and deepen cooperation issues of common interest such as the environment and climate change,” said Louis Michel, European Commissioner for Development and Humanitarian Aid. “The objectives of this process remain those of the EU’s Common Position and are consistent with the EU’s policy of constructive engagement towards Cuba.”
   Michel is due to visit Cuba on March 6-7. ' Simon Heaney