Diesel Prices Just Broke Records. Worse Ahead?

Diesel prices just hit about $6.33 a gallon — 50 cents above the previous record — and Tom Kloza says trucking still has a long way to go. In this FreightWaves Today interview, Kloza breaks down why diesel is disconnecting from crude, how refinery outages and global conflict are squeezing supply, and why the next 100 days could be especially rough for fleets, owner-operators and shippers. If diesel is your biggest line item, this is the market read you need. #DieselPrices #Trucking #EnergyMarkets

Diesel prices reached $6.33 per gallon — $0.50 above the prior record — and could climb further over the next 100 days, according to Tom Kloza, chief energy advisor at Gulf Oil. Speaking on FreightWaves Today, Kloza said trucking operators and shippers should not expect relief soon, with geopolitical disruptions, seasonal demand, and constrained refining capacity all pushing prices higher.

The closure of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline is compounding an already strained supply picture. Kloza said the shutdown — which Secretary of Energy Chris Wright described as lasting days, though Kloza suggested it could run 40 to 50 days — has prompted Saudi Arabia to suspend oil-loading for September deliveries to Europe. The pipeline also feeds refineries along the Red Sea that the Saudis control, representing about 1.8 million barrels per day of refining capacity, or roughly 2% of global throughput. Combined with earlier losses, Kloza said the world has already shed about 7 million barrels per day of refining capacity, mostly in Russia and the Persian Gulf.

“You know, you’re talking about $9 and $10 in Europe and you’re talking about $8.27 in California right now,” Kloza said. “These are the kind of numbers that you would call stupid numbers if somebody suggested them a while ago.”

“You may have heard this metric before, but if crude oil were trading normally to what the price of diesel is in Europe and the price of diesel is in the United States, it would be fetching a price this morning of about $175 a barrel,” Kloza said.

Truck-stop margins have tightened as retail prices lag wholesale costs. Kloza noted that average truck-stop fuel margins have moved from about $0.04 per gallon to roughly $0.07, while retail pump prices typically run $0.40 over cost — meaning significant catch-up pricing is still ahead. That dynamic hurts travel centers doubly: higher sticker prices deter drivers from buying higher-margin in-store goods. Kloza also noted that only about 2% of fuel purchases at large travel centers are now made at the retail pump price, with the vast majority flowing through discount programs and apps that have expanded over the past five years.

Kloza identified one potential price-dampening lever for the federal government: threatening export curbs on refined products. He said most analysts view actual export restrictions as bad policy for refiners, but that a credible threat alone could flush speculative money out of the diesel and gasoline futures markets, where he said “hot money” has been positioned for higher prices — unlike in crude oil markets.

One piece of better news for the industry: for the first time in roughly seven to eight years, soybean oil — the primary feedstock for biodiesel and renewable diesel — dropped below the price of traditional diesel. Kloza said existing biodiesel and renewable diesel plants are running at full capacity given surging margins, and that new production could come online in months rather than the years required to permit a conventional refinery. He said $3-per-gallon diesel is likely behind us for at least the next 15 to 16 months, and cautioned that heating demand in the Northeast — where the diesel and heating oil molecules are interchangeable — will add further pressure on distillate supplies as temperatures fall.

• Diesel hit $6.33 per gallon, $0.50 above the prior record, with Kloza warning of a tough 100 days ahead driven by pipeline closures, seasonal demand, and 7 million barrels per day of lost global refining capacity.
• Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline shutdown suspended September oil exports to Europe and threatens 1.8 million barrels per day of Red Sea refinery supply, deepening the global refining deficit.
• Soybean oil fell below the price of conventional diesel for the first time in 7-8 years, enabling fully utilized biodiesel and renewable diesel plants to ramp production in months rather than years.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.