Drewry expects manning problem to get worse

Drewry expects manning problem to get worse    A new study by Drewry Shipping Consultants said the shortage of seafarers for ships is expected to worsen in coming years.
   The study, Manning 2008, concludes that the officer shortage this year could be as much as 34,000 and could grow by 2012 to as much as 90,000.
   'This is set against an industry backcloth that has seen unprecedented growth in shipping over the last decade and set to grow by 40 percent with scrapping negligible,' Drewry said.
   'Ramping up training is very much on the agenda, but can it catch up in time? The demand/supply gap could also increase the risk of personnel being promoted beyond their competency level,' the company said.
   'This situation not only has serious commercial implications for owners and managers of shipping fleets, it raises both economic and political issues for major trading nations, Drewry said. 'So far there have been no reports of vessels confined to port through lack of crew, but how long will it be before this happens. No crews mean no voyages mean no deliveries of raw materials, vital commodities and finished goods. Supply chains could be severely disrupted and any business relying on just in time type processes will have to rethink and re-engineer before production grinds to a halt.'
   The shortfall in officers is causing wages to increase, the consulting firm said.
   The balance of negotiating power is shifting from employer to officers, the company said.
   It said ratings under the International Bargaining Forum's collective agreement and model agreement, can expect wage increases of 8 percent over the next two years. The IBF agreement covers some 4,000 ships and 100,000 seafarers around the world, according to the Japan Seamen's Union.
   Drewry said, 'Some aspects of the officer crisis will be resolved by changes in working practices but this will not be enough. New supply sources will need to be tapped — with Eastern Europe and Asia in prime focus, although Africa and South America may also contribute.'
   It said both recruitment and retention can help solve the problem.
   Drewry warns that 'with more seafarers spending less time between voyages, and fleet owners desperate for crews, the risk of having medically unfit people on board (and the cost implications that could have) employers need to be extra vigilant about who they take on.'