DREWRY SEES DRY BULK RECOVERY BY END OF 2002

DREWRY SEES DRY BULK RECOVERY BY END OF 2002    Dry bulk “freight rates are expected to start rising firmly in the fourth quarter of 2002, and move upwards throughout 2003 and 2004,” according to results of an annual survey by London-based Drewry Shipping Consultants Inc.
   “It is clear that the next cycle in the dry bulk market is about to begin, given the depths to which the market has fallen over the last 12 months, (and) we can only hope that this time, the peak is sustained longer,' the Drewry said.
   “If ship owners show restraint from that momentary thrill of a new vessel, then the ever-present threat of overtonnaging might be stalled for a period,” the survey noted.
   The projected level of new building deliveries in 2003, estimated around 14 million deadweight tons, is less than in 2002 and 2001. “Meanwhile, the number of vessels heading for the demolition beaches will, we hope, continue to rise to the six million mark,” Drewry’s report said.
   “Trade forecasts are also good, with most commodities showing a healthy rise as the global economy picks up and confidence returns to the sector,” it concluded.
   The rise in commodities “is generally led by crude steel production, which is widely expected to pick up by the end of this year, as the U.S. and Japan move back into positive production. It is worth noting that Chinese steel production has been one of the few lights on the dry bulk horizon,” the report said.
   Drewry’s report, “Annual Dry Bulk Market Review and Forecast — 2002,” costs $1,100 for print or PDF versions, or $1,250 for both formats.