Economists forecast drop in container volume

Economists forecast drop in container volume Cargo volume at the nation's major retail container ports is expected to decline 4 percent in 2008 compared with 2007 because of the nation's slow economy, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released Aug. 7 by the National Retail Federation and economic consulting firm Global Insight.
   Volume is projected to total 15.8 million TEUs for the year, compared with 16.4 million TEUs in 2007. Cargo volume each month this year has been below the same month last year, and is expected to continue to be below last year's levels in each remaining month except October and December.
   This year's volume 'reflects consumer demand as retailers work to keep inventory as tight as possible in order to keep supply and demand in balance,' said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. 'If merchants can avoid having excess merchandise on hand it means they can avoid the need for unplanned markdowns to clear their shelves, especially after the holiday season.'
   U.S. ports surveyed handled 1.3 million TEUs in June, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. The number was down 0.3 percent from May and 10.3 percent from June 2007.
   July was estimated at 1.37 million TEUs, down 5.2 percent from a year ago, and August is forecast at 1.42 million TEUs, down 2.7 percent. September is forecast at 1.4 million TEUs, down 4.9 percent, but October is forecast to be up 1.1 percent at 1.46 million TEUs. October should be the peak month of the year, though it will fall short of the 1.48 million TEU peak for 2007 set last September. November is forecast at 1.37 million TEUs, down 0.3 percent, and December at 1.32 million TEUs, up 3.4 percent.
   Meanwhile, all U.S. ports covered by Port Tracker ' Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast ' are rated 'low' for congestion, the same as last month.