Forecast: Retail ports? imports lowest since ?02

Forecast: Retail portsÆ imports lowest since Æ02    Import volumes at major U.S. retail container ports is projected at 12.3 million TEUs for 2009, an 18.8 percent drop from 2008 and the lowest level in seven years, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released Wednesday by the National Retail Federation and IHS Global Insight.
   'The national recession has clearly been reflected in the volume of cargo U.S. retailers have imported this year,' said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. 'Numbers are down significantly, but the good news is that we're expecting to move from double-digit declines into the single digits by the end of the year. That's some light at the end of the tunnel that we're really looking forward to seeing.'

Gold

   The Port Tracker found ports handled 15.2 million TEUs last year and 11.6 million TEUs in 2002.
   U.S. ports surveyed handled 1.01 million TEUs in June, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. That was down 2 percent from May and 22 percent from June 2008, marking the 24th month in a row to see a year-over-year decline.
   Forecasts for July-September are 20 percent lower than last year. Monthly volume forecasts for the rest of the year are:
   ' July, 1.06 million TEUs.
   ' August, 1.09 million TEUs.
   ' September, 1.08 million TEUs.
   ' October, traditionally the peak month of the year, 1.12 million TEUs, down 18 percent from 2008.
   ' November, 1.05 million TEUs, down 15 percent.
   ' December, 1.02 million TEUs, down 3.8 percent. The December forecast would mark the first single-digit decline of the year, with monthly volumes down 15 percent to 32 percent thus far.

Bingham

   'This year's peak season is beginning with very weak import container volume, and even though traffic is slowly building, that's going to be the case through the remainder of the year,' said IHS Global Insight Economist Paul Bingham. 'Summertime rail maintenance and the threat of hurricanes could cause some delays in the transportation system across the country, but the ports themselves are free of congestion and have more than sufficient capacity.'
   All U.S. ports covered by Port Tracker — Los Angeles-Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York-New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast — are rated 'low' for congestion, the same as last month.