Forecast: U.S. to see active storm season

Forecast: U.S. to see active storm season AccuWeather.com experts are predicting a rough storm season this year with significantly more storms striking the United States.
   In the recently released AccuWeather.com 2007 Hurricane Season Forecast, Chief Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi and his team predict up to 14 total storms in the Atlantic basin this year, with three or more likely to be major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater.
   The team warns that six to seven of these storms will strike the U.S. coast. This includes the possibility of Andrew- and Katrina-like multiple strikes by the same storm. The forecast sees the majority of the storms making landfalls on the Gulf and Southeast coasts from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Cape Hatteras, N.C., with the center of the bull's eye on Florida.
   The official hurricane season begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30.
   Bastardi said this year's indicators all point to the Gulf being at much higher risk for destructing tropical weather than last year.
   'The highest area of risk has swung southwestward from the Atlantic to Florida and the eastern and central Gulf Coast region. In past years that exhibited the same climatological patterns we expect this season, these areas were the main target of Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms,' Bastardi said.
   'Some of those years also saw a storm break out of the pack and head up the East Coast, and we would not be surprised to see this scenario play out this year as well. Any storm that strikes north of Hatteras has increased potential to be a major one,' he said.
   Bastardi cited as precursory evidence:
   * A weak La Ni'a, a formation of cooler-than-normal Pacific waters, in the wake of an El Ni'o at the end of last year.
   * A current warm-water cycle occurring in the area of the Atlantic that serves as a breeding ground for hurricanes, as well as forecasts for precipitation and air pressure patterns expected during hurricane season; how spring will evolve across the North American continent; and projections for the U.S. summer weather patterns.
   * Forecasts of air pressure oscillations over the Pacific, and diminished dry air over the tropical Atlantic.
   'It is true that one of the patterns we are accounting for is the formation of a La Ni'a following the recent El Ni'o, but too often, the impact of a La Ni'a, or an El Ni'o, on a hurricane season is oversimplified. It is just one of many patterns that need to be examined when predicting a hurricane season, and often not the most important one,' Bastardi said.
   Regarding the impact that the 2007 hurricane season is projected to have, said AccuWeather.com Director of Forecast Operations Ken Reeves said: 'The heightened threat we foresee for Florida and the eastern Gulf Coast could have significant implications for areas still recovering from the devastation wrought by the hurricanes of 2004 and 2005'
   Added Reeves, 'Those living farther up the East Coast should by no means let down their guard. While the threat there is lower than last year, 'less risk' does not mean 'no risk.' We expect at least one storm will threaten these areas.'
   Regarding the impact that this season will have on energy prices, Reeves said 'any time you have hurricanes roaming the Gulf of Mexico, there is the possibility that energy production could be disrupted. This obviously could affect prices consumers pay for gasoline and natural gas.
   'Overall, we will see more powerful storms across the board than we did last year,' Reeves said. 'We will not get anywhere near the amount of storms that we did in 2005, but it is the intensity of the storms we do get that will be of major concern.'
   'Last year was just a breather, because the overall pattern of increased landfalls shows no sign of reversing in the near term,' Bastardi said.