Freight Market Alert: Why US Tender Rejections Are Skyrocketing

The freight market is showing an unusual tightening with widespread increases in tender rejection rates across the United States. Join us as we dive into the latest SONAR data, analyzing the unexpected post-Labor Day surge and what it signals for capacity and spot rates. We’ll examine regional impacts, trailer type trends, and the underlying factors driving this shift. Understanding these nuances is critical for shippers and carriers navigating a fragile market.

The national Outbound Tender Rejection Index climbed to 14.32% in the days following Labor Day, a move that FreightWaves analyst Zach Strickland says is unusual enough to warrant close attention from carriers, brokers, and shippers alike. Unlike typical seasonal spikes tied to tropical weather or road-check weeks, this increase is showing up across virtually every major freight market in the country.

“I think one of the things that Craig and I talk about all the time is how fragile the market is,” said Strickland. “Capacity still has not grown in any meaningful way. Capacity itself is a very slow figure to change over time. It takes long stretches of time, hence the 3-year downturn that we had with the rejection rates all below 5%.”

“This is very unusual. This is not seasonal. It’s a nuance in the market. You’ve got to watch it.”— Zach Strickland

A sharp post-holiday volume surge is a primary driver. Strickland described the Labor Day shipping pattern as “probably the most aggressive post-holiday shipping surge” seen throughout the year, as shippers who deferred freight decisions ahead of the holiday returned to their desks and released a concentrated burst of tender activity. FreightWaves’ Sonar demand data showed a steep spike out of the Labor Day trough, standing well above levels recorded at the same point in 2025.

The Weighted Rejection Index — which combines weekly changes in tender rejection rates with market share to weight larger freight markets more heavily — showed widespread blue across the map, indicating deteriorating carrier acceptance. Notably, major freight hubs including Dallas, Chicago, Atlanta, and Harrisburg all registered increases, meaning the move is not being driven by a single tight regional market. Strickland also flagged Twin Falls, Idaho, a produce-heavy refrigerated corridor, along with harvest-season activity building in Iowa and the Dakotas as contributing factors.

By trailer type, refrigerated rejections are rising in line with seasonal expectations, as fall harvest demand pushes reefer capacity tighter — a pattern Van de Kamp noted tends to produce some of the highest refrigerated rejection rates of the year. Flatbed rejections have edged higher but remain subdued, weighed down by weak housing starts and uncertainty around CHIPS Act-related construction spending. Dry van rejections are the focal point of the current move.

Spot rates are beginning to reflect the tightening. Strickland noted that tender rejection rates historically lead spot rate movements and warned shippers not to expect the typical post-Labor Day rate rollover. “Watch out on the spot market here,” he said. “We’re already starting to see a little bit of a notch up.” One structural factor keeping the market sensitive to demand swings: Atlantic hurricane season has so far produced no storms, removing what is typically a September wildcard for capacity disruption along the Southeast corridor.

With end-of-quarter shipping activity still ahead and consumer demand trends around the holidays uncertain, Strickland said the market has considerable runway before conditions clarify. For now, the breadth of the rejection rate move — rather than its magnitude — is the signal carriers and shippers should be tracking.

• National tender rejections reached 14.32% following Labor Day, driven by a broad-based volume surge rather than a single regional disruption.
• The Weighted Rejection Index shows deteriorating carrier acceptance across major hubs including Dallas, Chicago, Atlanta, and Harrisburg, with refrigerated rejections rising seasonally on fall harvest demand.
• Tender rejection rates are leading spot rates higher, and analysts warn shippers not to expect the typical post-Labor Day rate decline.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.