IHS: Expanding global trading fleet may mean more maritime casualties in 2015

Analysts from IHS Maritime & Trade predict continued increases in fatal incidents in both the shipping and passenger sectors.    According to a report from IHS Maritime and Trade, maritime casualties may increase in 2015, largely as a result of continued expansion of the global trading fleet.
   IHS said 1,639 maritime casualty incidents were reported during 2014, up 10 percent from the 1,489 incidents reported in 2013.
   Fleet capacity modeling from IHS estimates in 2015 1,484 ships will be added to the 42,604 vessels considered part of the global trading fleet in 2014. “This trend will continue at roughly 3 percent per year and will pass the 50,000 mark by 2020,” the company said.
   The primary concentration of maritime incidents lies in the busy maritime trading zones of Europe and Asia Pacific. IHS data indicates “double digit year-on-year increases in the number of incidents in the top-10 trading zones, with the British Isles and the North Sea seeing a 19 percent increase alone, while Eastern Mediterranean and the South China Sea seeing 12 percent increases each.”
   2014 saw a 23 percent increase year-over-year in vessel collisions alone, with the busy waters of the South China Sea registering the highest number of collisions.
   Gary Li, senior analyst at HIS, said of the report “The continued growth in global maritime trade is of course good news, but it should go hand in hand with the safety of seafarers. However, the declining rate of total losses as a proportion of overall casualties is a good trend.”
  Li said that vessel age is also a critical factor, “with the majority of those incidents occurring in Canada, Russia and the Great Lakes being vessels with the highest average ages of 28-31 years.
   “One of the reasons is that these regions see many small locally operating vessels, or vessels that possess specialisms that are hard to replace, such as icebreaking tugs in the Arctic ports,” Li said. “For example, 156 Canadian flagged vessel casualties averaged 31 years and 127 Russian flagged vessels averaged 26 years.”
   In terms of potential casualties, IHS said, the highest statistical risk is still associated with passenger vessels because so many more people are on board in the event of an incident.  In 2014, 418 casualties were reported and, nearly 108 percent more than the 201 casualties reported in 2013. An additional 138 people were reported missing in 2014, slightly less than the 149 missing persons reported the previous year.
   “The shipping community must not slacken in ensuring the meeting of safety regulations and the propagation of safety knowledge and best practice,” Li cautioned. “Extra care should be taken amongst passenger vessels and those operating in Northern Europe and South East Asia, which will continue to be hotspots for casualty incidents.”