New Trucking Authorities: Are They Sustainable?

FreightWaves dives into the surge of new trucking authorities and whether this capacity is sustainable. With tender rejections flat and demand picking up, we explore the risks brokers face with new MC numbers and no safety ratings. Plus, is mode conversion to rail a real solution to truckload capacity constraints?

A burst of new trucking operating authorities in the second and third quarters of 2025 has produced a net gain of more than 5,000 unique authorities year to date, even after 19,594 net revocations, according to FreightWaves SONAR CNDCA data reviewed on August 12. But Julie Van de Kamp said the headline number overstates available capacity, arguing that brokers and shippers are unlikely to tender freight to carriers with brand-new MC numbers and no safety rating given current fraud conditions and liability exposure.

The net gain broke down unevenly across quarters: Q1 produced a gain of just 400 authorities, Q2 added 2,910, and Q3 has posted a net gain of 1,996 through the week ending August 7 — 914 behind Q2’s pace but 1,596 ahead of Q1. Van de Kamp cautioned that a visible June spike in the data is partly a data artifact from a registration outage tied to the Modus system transition, during which no authority data was collected from May 16 through June 5.

“Are brokers still tendering freight to carriers with new MC numbers and no safety rating based on current fraud conditions as well as certainly litigation and liability concerns?” Van de Kamp said. “I don’t know that it’s necessarily translating to more capacity being available.”

“I don’t see the case for continued increase in capacity because you’re not going to be able to find drivers to fill the seats. That even if fleets wanted to expand, we’ve heard this consistently, is that they’re having to pay more for drivers. The driver environment is getting harder and harder. And that is going to keep the cap on capacity.” — Julie Van de Kamp

Van de Kamp pointed to immigration policy as a structural constraint on the driver pool. Bureau of Labor Statistics data put the share of non-U.S.-born immigrant drivers at roughly 20% as of 2019, she noted, while insurance industry estimates place that figure as high as 40% of the total driver population. Tightening immigration enforcement, she argued, removes what has historically been a relief valve for driver supply, compounding an already aging driver demographic.

On the demand side, SONAR’s Truckload Volume Index shows volumes running above the prior three-year average on a seasonal basis, with a minor uptick visible since August 8. Tender rejections held at 13.5% as of the August 12 update, in line with April levels but showing some cooling in recent weeks. Loaded inbound ocean container volumes tracked by the IOTI index are running higher than last year since June, though the pattern is more elongated than the sharp, tariff-driven import spike seen in 2024. Inventory levels remain a watch item: LMI data shows inventories down 9% year over year.

A mode-conversion dynamic is also reshaping apparent truckload volume. SONAR O-Rail data show domestic intermodal loaded containers up 7% over the past two years and up 5% over the past six months, while international loaded containers are down 13% over two years and down 2% over six months. Craig Fuller said the shift helps explain why tender rejections have softened without a corresponding drop in overall freight demand.

Looking ahead, Fuller and Van de Kamp both expect demand to continue rising into peak season, with the outcome of the end-of-August “brake check” period — a seasonal inflection point for capacity — likely to signal whether the market is entering a hotter cycle. Van de Kamp said structural supply constraints, combined with potential broadening of industrial activity beyond data centers into housing and auto, could extend the current upcycle well beyond the summer of 2026 timeline some analysts have cited.

• Net trucking operating authorities are up more than 5,000 year to date, but 19,594 revocations occurred over the same period, and a June data spike is partly a Modus registration backlog artifact.
• Domestic intermodal loaded containers rose 7% over two years while international intermodal volumes fell 13%, pointing to mode conversion rather than outright demand loss.
• Driver supply constraints — including an aging workforce and tightening immigration enforcement, with immigrants estimated at 20%-40% of drivers — are seen limiting any meaningful capacity expansion.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.